NATO bolsters Baltic defences amid undersea cable tension

"It's typical northern weather," Commander Ilja Iljin laughs. I look at the deputy commander of the Gulf of Finland Coast Guard District and wonder about his good mood. The latest forecast calls for strong winds, an approaching snowstorm, and temperatures below freezing. We are to set off to sea in such conditions.

For now, our RV90 patrol boat is docked at Katajanokka Island, right in the centre of Helsinki. There are ice floes in the harbour. My imagination suggests the worst scenarios, such as falling overboard. At this water temperature, around 0 °C, it could result in, at best, severe hypothermia, or at worst, death. It only takes a few minutes.

Cmdr Iljin turns serious: "The first thing: a life jacket. If you want to be on deck, you must wear it. The second thing: If we receive a call to action at sea, we will sail immediately, and then you must unconditionally follow orders."

After a brief briefing, we set off. The RV90, one of fifteen similar vessels in the service's equipment, can speed well over 60 km/h. We quickly leave behind the characteristic old casino building in Helsinki and pass the icebreakers moored along the coast.

"There probably won't be any ice this winter, although, of course, nothing can be ruled out. I remember years when the Gulf of Finland froze only in February. Today happens to be the coldest day of this week, but long-term forecasts mostly speak of above-freezing temperatures," the patrol boat commander remarks from his seat.

Initially, the water was quite calm, but after passing the island of Sveaborg, I was reminded that the RV90 is just a little over a 10-metre shell. It was enough that the waves intensified, and it was already hard to stand, and my knuckles turned white from gripping the handles tightly. Going outside was out of the question. The waves lashed the deck, which quickly became covered with a thin layer of ice.

"Welcome to the coast guard. Just another day," Iljin flashed his Finnish humour again.

The Gulf of Finland has become one of the most critical maritime areas in Europe and attracted worldwide media attention. Over Christmas, it experienced one of the most serious incidents related to critical underwater infrastructure - the EstLink2 underwater power cable connecting Finland with Estonia was severed.

The culprit of the incident is the tanker "Eagle S," sailing from St. Petersburg to Egypt with a cargo of petrol. The ship, flying the Cook Islands flag, belongs to the Russian shadow fleet. This term refers to unofficial Russian maritime activities, particularly secret or suspicious operations of the commercial and military fleet.

The tanker was stopped by the Finns, who decided to board immediately, preventing the ship's escape. Since then, the "Eagle S" has been docked in an inaccessible bay east of Helsinki, unreachable from the land side. This "spot" is nothing unusual - Finland's Baltic coast differs significantly from the one we are familiar with. Instead of sandy beaches, they have thousands of islands, islets, and bays.

The Finnish Central Criminal Police is investigating the incident. On Tuesday, 21st January, "Helsingin Sanomat" reported that investigators had not found evidence so far to suggest that "Eagle S" deliberately damaged the cable. Also, "The Washington Post," citing intelligence sources, reported that everything points to an accident. The investigation continues, however.

The seabed of the Gulf of Finland hosts numerous telecommunications and energy connections between Estonia and Finland. It also serves as the only route to Russian ports in St. Petersburg, Ust-Luga, or Kronstadt. This area is patrolled by the Finnish and Estonian coast guards.

A consequence of the EstLink2 cable break is the Baltic Sentry mission announced in Helsinki. NATO has decided to establish the Baltic Guard, which will protect critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. The group is already gathering off the coast of Estonia, including allied ships, reconnaissance aircraft, and underwater drones.

Baltic Sentry will not replace regular patrols and activities conducted by allied countries' coast guards or navies.

"The Coast Guard is not part of NATO operations, so it is separate activity. We, of course, carry out our regular statutory tasks in the same area," emphasises Ilja Iljin. "Our coast guard units patrol the waters daily on various types of boats and hovercraft. We don't do this 24 hours a day, but we don't limit ourselves to daytime patrols either. We also have night patrols. Although floating patrols are not continuous, we conduct constant surveillance based on radars and cameras. If we need to take a closer look at something, then we can send one of the boats or a patrol plane. That's our routine," he explains.

Cmdr Iljin points out that after the EstLink2 was severed, there was no significant increase in suspicious activity, as it is already high due to the nature of the maritime area.

"In terms of ship behaviour, we have continually noticed strange movements, such as circling in an area or zigzagging manoeuvres. However, some of what looks strange at first glance may be completely normal behaviour in navigation," says the Finn. "Ships sometimes wait for cargo at sea for a long time, so they may be anchored or performing routine manoeuvres. We monitor and control this movement, but I do not see a particularly heightened risk as long as ships do not move in heavily trafficked areas."

"What about the recent events?" I ask. "Do you believe that the severing of the cable by Eagle S was an accident? Intelligence sources, as cited by 'The Washington Post,' indicate there is no evidence of sabotage."

"This incident is still under police investigation, and I am sure they will comment on it when the time is right," he replies.

"What does your experience tell you?"

"In the last few years, we had three similar incidents. Before that, there were none. That's my answer," the officer concludes.

Accusing Moscow of recent events in the Baltic may be an extremely difficult task. Jukka Savolainen, director at the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, an international organisation under the EU and NATO auspices, does not believe that Russia will be found guilty in this matter.

The publication by "The Washington Post" took place just days after NATO's decision to create the Baltic Guard - which, according to the expert, is unlikely to encourage increased NATO involvement in the region.

"When do intelligence agencies disclose information?" Savolainen asks rhetorically. "They do this only when they have a good reason. They also do it at a specific political time. This is a typical case of misinformation. For some reason, those who wrote this article connected two statements. One is true, the other false. You combine them, and it seems that what was written is true," says the expert outright.

Savolainen indicates that "evidence to prove Russia's involvement will probably not be found". "If the agencies cannot prove it, how could I? This does not exclude the possibility of a hybrid operation by some state actors," he adds.

The interlocutor agrees with the assessment of the situation by Gen. Pekki Toveri, former head of Finnish military intelligence, who clearly stated in the American newspaper that he does not believe in an accident.

"I agree with what the general said: 'Bravo Sierra' [English equivalent of 'bullshit' translated as 'complete nonsense']," he comments.

On Sunday, 26th January, another similar incident occurred in the Baltic. This time a fibre optic cable between the western coast of Latvia and the Swedish island of Gotland was damaged. "Vezhen," the vessel suspected in the incident, was taken over by the Swedes and directed near Karlskrona. The "Vezhen," flying the Maltese flag, is a bulk carrier owned by the Bulgarian company Navigation Maritime Bulgare. Published photos on Monday show that one of the ship's anchors is visibly damaged. Sweden has already launched an investigation into the matter.