Military setbacks and surprises: An in‑depth look at Ukraine's resilience
According to experts, Ukraine's difficult situation on the front line in recent months was due to delays in delivering military aid from the West. When it arrived, the tide began to turn. Can Ukrainians now dream of victory again? According to Kimberly Kagan from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), there is still a long way to liberation. However, one thing might be surprising.
Ukrainians have endured extremely tough months on the front line. Deprived of support from the USA and the West, they had to retreat under the enemy's pressure. Russia had an opportunity to take the initiative and start an offensive on the front lines, but they failed.
"Ukraine has gone through a terrible period over the past several months. That’s what’s made the situation look grim, and it has been grim," admitted Frederick Kagan in a conversation with David French from "The New York Times".
According to him, the Russians could not exploit the gap in Western support to achieve significant gains. They still face serious challenges, such as poorly trained soldiers and often unrealistic demands from commanders. This is excellent news for Ukraine.
Western analysts observing the war are more optimistic than the Ukrainian commanders. As David French points out, Ukrainians identified problems in three specific areas a year ago: numbers, ammunition, and air defence. The following months showed they were right.
Will the resumption of American aid address these issues? - the expert wonders.
Frederick Kagan points out that it is clear that Vladimir Putin is reluctant to engage in general mobilisation.
For now, the Russian military fighting in Ukraine is smaller than the Ukrainian military, and the Russians seem to be content to keep it that way - he added.
Without American help, Ukraine won't make it
Another problem keeping Ukrainian leaders awake at night is air defence. However, Ukrainians have already shown how good they are at shooting down bomber jets used by Russians to drop glide bombs.
They need to have enough of those systems and of their interceptors — the missiles that Patriots and other air defense systems fire to shoot down enemy aircraft or missiles — to be able to have some on the front lines - emphasises Frederick Kagan.
As Kimberly Kagan adds, Ukrainians have found a way to manage with less ammunition than Russia. They are more precise in their targets. This allows them to use fewer bullets than the Russians.
Another way Ukrainians have survived as their ammunition supplies dwindled was through the creative use of small drones, which they used to transport explosives to damage or destroy armoured vehicles, including tanks.
Why didn't Ukraine's counteroffensive work?
According to Kimberly Kagan, at the beginning of 2022, it was clear that Ukraine would need Western tanks, planes, air defence, artillery, precision rockets, and long-range artillery, and many other systems, but the United States and its partners acted far too slowly to start providing such capabilities. Due to these and other factors, the Russians had over six months to prepare defences along the most likely axes of the Ukrainian advance - and so they did.
It's also worth noting that the Russians laid mines and dug trenches. They also prepared a skilful deep defence, training their forces to fight well in those areas where they expected attacks. All of this, according to the expert, made the Ukrainian counteroffensive an enormous challenge—more significant than many predicted.
How will the war in Ukraine end?
According to Frederick Kagan, Ukraine must be able to control its entire strategically important territory, be aligned with the West, and have armed forces sufficient to stop any future attacks from Russia. The international community must know that none of Russia's territorial conquests in Ukraine are legitimate. Russia cannot destroy the Ukrainian identity and language.
Only then can there be discussions about a settlement and peace.
