Kremlin's Kursk ultimatum: Peace talks hinge on regional retreat
The Kremlin will not engage in peace negotiations with Ukraine until the liberation of the Kursk region. According to the independent Russian portal Werstka, orders have been given to push the Armed Forces of Ukraine out before Donald Trump's inauguration. Sources from the Kremlin suggest this is the only barrier preventing Putin from starting negotiations with Kyiv.
According to journalists, Kremlin representatives are ready for peace talks to at least freeze the conflict with Ukraine. However, they will begin only after the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) withdraw from the Kursk region. The portal cites three sources: two from Putin's administration and one related to the negotiation process.
Talks only after pushing Ukrainians out of Kursk
"Talks will be conducted only from a position of strength," said a source close to the Kremlin. The source explained that a counter-offensive is necessary so that the Russian side does not appear to "back down." According to him, "there is still time," as talks with the U.S. will be supervised by the administration of the newly elected President Donald Trump, who will assume office on the 20th of January – the day scheduled for the inauguration.
On the 7th of November, during a Valdai Club meeting, Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump on his election victory. The leader also stressed that he does not consider it "undignified" to personally call Trump when he takes office.
Moreover, he described the new U.S. President as a "brave man" – referring to his attempted attack during the campaign and assessing the American politician's election promises regarding ending the war in Ukraine and rebuilding relations with Russia as "deserving attention at least."
Trump himself previously described his relations with Putin as "good" and promised to end the war in Ukraine within one day.
"This exchange of pleasantries (between Trump and Putin) is a nod to all those who are tired of the special military operation and its associated problems. In reality, however, there will be no talks as long as the Armed Forces of Ukraine remain in the Kursk region. The order has been given. The command's task is to push them out by the end of the year," said a source from the Kremlin.
Vladimir Putin is expected to propose stopping the war once Kyiv leaves the Kursk region.
"Despite signals from Washington and Moscow showing a willingness to improve relations, the Russian side is not yet engaging in direct negotiations," says a source familiar with the details of contacts regarding the negotiation process. The source emphasises that it is Putin himself who would propose stopping the war if the Armed Forces of Ukraine leave the Kursk region.
"Even before the intrusion of the AFU into the Russian region, there was a plan to reach an agreement on banning attacks on energy infrastructure. Subsequently, the sides could begin the negotiation process through Qatar. After the AFU entered the Kursk region, this became impossible," explained the source.
They are to be pushed out by New Year’s Eve
Moscow's plans to clear the Kursk region and start negotiations with Kyiv are indirectly confirmed by events on the front.
"Reports of the Russian military counter-offensive have been circulating since August," says a source in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation who recently spent time in the Kursk region.
According to the source, there is now an "order" to clear the Kursk region by New Year’s Eve. He noted that new forces recruited during the recruitment surge in late August and September "will be directed towards this goal." Previously, Werstka reported that after the AFU attack in the Kursk region, the number of people willing to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defence in Moscow doubled.
