Kremlin faces critical pressure as Russian forces dwindle
According to European intelligence sources, the Russian General Staff and the Ministry of Defence are exerting "serious pressure" on the Kremlin to announce new mobilisation efforts to replenish forces in Ukraine. In a conversation with The Economist, NATO officials reported that Russia is struggling with a shortage of soldiers.
"Russia now doesn’t have sufficient forces to mass. If they achieved a breakthrough they could not exploit it," explained a high-ranking NATO official.
The Russian army still relies on outdated tactics, resulting in mass casualties on the battlefield. Support from North Korean soldiers, who are reportedly being sent to the front in the Kursk region, highlights the issues facing Russian troops.
NATO Chief Mark Rutte stated on Monday in Brussels that approximately 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war in Ukraine. The deployment of North Korean troops in Russia, confirmed by the Alliance, was described as "an act of growing desperation" by Vladimir Putin.
Producing considerably more weapons
Sources from The Economist confirm that the Russian arms industry significantly surpasses the production of Western countries. "The European Union claims to be making more than 1m shells per year; Russia is making three times that, and is also boosted by supplies from North Korea and Iran," we read.
"I just don’t know we can produce enough, give enough. We have no more to give them without taking serious risks in other places," explained an informant familiar with US military aid to Ukraine.
Mobilisation and recruitment
NATO estimates that Russia recruits about 30,000 new soldiers monthly. Although this is not enough to achieve all the objectives on the front, it allows for covering vast human losses. According to Dr Jack Watling, a senior analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, Russia cannot conduct warfare indefinitely. However, if the situation on the front does not change, Ukraine's "critical point" may come first.
Dr Watling believes that Russia is aiming to achieve its goals in the Donbas next year, assuming that the Ukrainian army will suffer material and personal losses that will prevent it from stopping further Russian advances. This scenario would give Russia an advantage in potential peace negotiations.
In mid-September, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Russian military command approached dictator Vladimir Putin to announce another wave of mobilisation.
Similar requests were made in March this year when Putin "was re-elected" as president.
During a meeting with the Ministry of Defence leadership, it was suggested that the May inauguration be used to announce mobilisation. However, Putin refused, stating that he prefers to rely solely on those who voluntarily sign contracts with the ministry.
Putin is afraid to announce mobilisation
Mobilisation in Russia in the short and medium term is unlikely due to Vladimir Putin's concerns about the social consequences it could trigger, assessed the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) at the end of September, noting repeated speculations about possible mobilisation related to the situation on the front in Ukraine.
"Mobilization in Russia remains unlikely in the near to medium term due to Putin’s personal fear that mobilization is a direct threat to his regime’s stability," ISW justifies its assessment.
