ISW forecasts new Russian offensive in Ukraine amid aid delays
Russian forces are preparing for a new offensive, which is supposed to take place in the summer of 2024 - reported the American think tank, Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in its latest report. It was added that a "key role" in enhancing the defensive capabilities of Kyiv's troops will be played by the increase in Western military aid.
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The report indicates that the current offensive operations of the Russian army are primarily aimed at preventing Ukrainians from stabilizing their defensive lines. This is especially concerning for areas west of Avdiivka, in the Donetsk region, where intense fighting is taking place.
"Although Ukrainian forces have recently managed to slow down Russian advances west of Avdiivka, the widespread shortages of materials caused by delays in Western military aid appear to force Ukraine to prioritize limited resources in critical frontline sectors. This increases the risk of Putin's army achieving a breakthrough in other, less well-supplied sectors of the front, rendering it overall more vulnerable than it appears, despite the currently relatively slow pace of Russian progress," - claim the American experts.
They added that during spring and summer, the Russians will try to exploit Ukraine's weaknesses, resulting from a standstill in the supplies of Western military aid, and continue offensive actions regardless of adverse weather conditions, such as muddy grounds.
When supplies arrive, Ukraine will cope
Officials - both from the West and Ukraine - warn that the Kremlin may opt for a large-scale offensive in the summer, anticipating that shortages in the supply chain of Kyiv's army will worsen further.
"Well-supplied Ukrainian forces have proven their capability to prevent the Russian army from making even minimal territorial gains in large-scale offensive operations. There is no reason to doubt that Ukraine could further stabilize the front line and prepare to repel a potential Putin offensive in summer, should their material shortages decrease," - it was summarised.
Source: ISW
