Hidden alliances: How covert support fuels Russia's Ukraine war

Kremlin's propaganda presents the war in Ukraine as a clash with the "collective West." It omits the fact that Putin has the support of an informal coalition of countries that are at odds with liberal democracy. Moscow receives weapons, ammunition, and access to sanctioned technologies from these nations. Who and how is supporting Russia's aggression in Ukraine?

The Kremlin's propaganda presents the war in Ukraine as a clash with the "collective West." It omits that Putin has the support of an informal coalition of countries at odds with liberal democracy. Moscow receives these nations' weapons, ammunition, and access to sanctioned technologies. Who and how is supporting Russia's aggression in Ukraine?

In September 2024, the world learned about New Delhi's plans to sell the T-72 tanks used by the Indian army. More than 2,400 machines in the T-72M1 variant are to be upgraded, after which the gradually retired tanks will be offered to less demanding clients from Africa and Asia.

These plans have raised concerns in Ukraine due to information indicating that the modernisation of Indian tanks will be carried out in collaboration with the Russian industry. This raises fears that the equipment arriving in Russia for modernisation may never leave. Instead of reaching clients in distant corners of the world, it could be used by Russia to replenish losses suffered during the invasion of Ukraine.

These concerns are not unfounded. While the Prime Minister of India visits Kyiv and Warsaw, often speaking about the need for peace, the world's largest refinery, built in Jamnagar, India, is absorbing Russia's surplus oil due to Western sanctions.

Oil products – now labelled Indian, not Russian – are subsequently exported without obstacles, including to Europe. India profits from this, but obviously, Russia also benefits, receiving a continuous stream of cash.

New Delhi’s aid to Moscow is disguised, but countries support Russia's war effort more directly.

Some—like China—do so while maintaining the appearance of neutrality and declaring restrictions on exporting "non-lethal equipment," which includes everything necessary to conduct a war except weapons.

Thus, a river of personal protective equipment, medical kits, bulletproof vests, helmets, drones, and electronic components flows to Russia from China. As French President Emmanuel Bonne’s advisor noted in 2023, all this directly impacts Russia's ability to wage war.

It is enough to mention that – according to the Ukrainian service – "The study results show that 67% of the components originate in China, with 17% of those coming through Hong Kong."

If Beijing wished, it could stop the war with one decision—halting the supply of cotton-derived nitrocellulose, essential for the Russian arms industry (although Russia is trying to change this by developing technologies to produce gunpowder, for example, using wood). However, nothing of the sort is happening.

In mid-2024, Bloomberg estimated that at least 10,000 railcars with ammunition had been sent from North Korea to Russia, containing an estimated 4.8 million artillery shells. The scale of this aid is evident from the fact that both Czech "ammunition coalitions", involving around 20 Western countries, aim to deliver 1.7 million shells to Ukraine over several months.

In a situation where the Russian army's quartermaster began scraping the bottom of warehouses filled with shells from the Cold War era, the poor quality of North Korean ammunition became secondary, as did the risks associated with its use.

Even the Russians criticise it as absolute junk; if a (North Korean) shell reached and exploded, artillerymen would celebrate, and everyone would dance and sing songs praising Chairman Kim. If the shell missed and fell on the heads of our infantry – thank the half-starved guys from North Korea who assembled it for a bowl of rice.

"Quantity has a quality all its own," Joseph Stalin supposedly said years ago. This principle applies on the front lines, where fire intensity counts alongside accuracy: the same effect as with precise guided ammunition fire can be achieved by firing dozens of ordinary shells. Most will miss, but thanks to thousands of railcars sent by Pyongyang, statistics favour the Russians: one of the shells will eventually hit.

The aid also extends beyond artillery shells. Russia—via a roundabout route—received its own technology back. This happened thanks to North Korean tank destroyers with Bulsae anti-tank-guided missiles. These are Korean variants of Russian weapons—Bulsae-4 is an upgrade of the 9M111 Fagot missile, and Bulsae-5 is an upgrade of the 9M133 Kornet missile.

Equally important is Tehran's support. Drones used to terrorise Ukrainian cities and destroy infrastructure, ballistic missiles – like Fath 360 – and ammunition (~valued much higher by the Russians than that from North Korea) are invaluable support.

This is especially true since, in this cooperation, the roles have reversed—Russia received not only material assistance but also technological support in the form of licences for Shahid family drones.

The analysis of these drones' wrecks, carried out by Ukrainians, reveals an uncomfortable truth: besides components from China, key parts of these – and many other – Russian weapons come from the West. And they are assembled by Russians despite the sanctions.

This is possible thanks to a network of companies established by Russian agents in various countries worldwide. Through a chain of intermediating entities, important components can be exported from the United States, as recently revealed by the arrest in Florida of one of the Russian organizers of this practice.

Significant institutional support for Russia comes from the United Arab Emirates, which has been linked with Moscow by a "strategic partnership" since 2018. Its practical implementation includes a network of companies allowing Russia to bypass Western sanctions easily. Kazakhstan also plays a similar role to Belarus, albeit to a lesser extent due to tighter sanctions enforcement.

Support can also be symbolic, such as visits by Russian warships or military aircraft to South Africa or friendly gestures from Mongolia toward Russia.

Although this country formally falls under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court and even participates in its activities (e.g., by supporting the arrest warrant for the Israeli Prime Minister), it rolls out the red carpet for visiting Putin, who is also under an arrest warrant, openly mocking the decisions of The Hague institution.

As noted in Anne Applebaum's recently published book The Autocracy Incorporated, an alliance of dictatorships and autocracies has emerged worldwide. By supporting each other, these alliances challenge the West and its values.

Ukraine has become the front line of this confrontation. Although Russia is directly responsible for military aggression, and primarily – though not exclusively – Russian passport holders die in battles, a broad, international coalition stands behind them. Russia's ability to continue fighting would be significantly more limited without it.