GDP boost predicted if Harris wins, Trump's tariffs risk economic slump
Reuters reports that Goldman Sachs calculates that the United States' economic growth will gain momentum if Kamala Harris wins the presidential election rather than Donald Trump. The bank indicates that additional tariffs, as promised by the Republican candidate, will be detrimental to the USA.
As the United States presidential election draws closer, the candidates' campaigns are becoming more intense. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are not mincing words, though it's the Republican who has started hurling insults at the Democratic frontrunner. "The New York Times" recently tallied that the Republican has called his opponent names such as "dumb as a rock," "a real piece of trash," and also stated that she "spent her entire life on her knees."
Goldman Sachs, in its latest memo, refers to the plans that Trump and Harris have for the US economy. Experts have no illusions that American GDP growth within two years of the election would benefit from the Democratic candidate.
"We estimate that if Trump wins, the impact of tariffs and stricter immigration policies on economic growth will outweigh the positive fiscal impulse, leading to a peak hit to GDP growth of -0.5 percentage points in the second half of 2025, which will wane in 2026," the bank reports.
Experts point out that, on the other hand, if Harris were to win, there would be a "slight" increase in US economic growth, resulting from higher corporate taxes, opposed by billionaires supporting Trump, such as Elon Musk.
Kamala Harris a few percentage points ahead of Donald Trump
Goldman estimates that under Harris's administration, job growth would be about 10,000, and even up to 30,000 if Trump wins, provided Republicans continue to gain strength in power - writes Reuters.
The agency adds that according to experts, increasing tariffs on car imports from China, Mexico, and the European Union will raise core inflation. Sources at money.pl believe this would also be a detrimental move for Poland (more on this topic in the link below).
How are voter sympathies currently distributed ahead of the November 5 election? Based on an ABC News/Ipsos poll published on Sunday, analysts noted that the results are similar and statistically unchanged compared to the August poll. Before the Democratic Party Convention, Harris had 49% support among registered voters, while Trump had 45%.
According to the latest survey, Harris is leading among women: 54 to 41%. Trump leads among men - 51 to 46%. Before the convention, Harris had a 6% lead among women.
The Democrat also performed better in the election campaign. 56% of Americans felt she did an excellent or good job. About 41% expressed a similar opinion about the former Republican president.
Trump, on the other hand, exceeds Harris in trust regarding key issues, including the economy and inflation. In each of these categories, he leads by 8%. More respondents also trust him more in resolving the situation at the US-Mexico border.
