Four scenarios for US election: Implications for Europe
The election results in the USA present four scenarios: a clear victory for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump and a narrow victory for one of the candidates, says Dr Jan Smoleński, an American studies expert from the University of Warsaw.
A decisive victory for Democrat Kamala Harris poses the least risk of internal chaos in the USA, without public doubt. He predicts that it would also signal the continuation of the policy of building alliances aimed at limiting Russia's and China's influence and expansion. However, he notes that judging by the latest polls, such a scenario seems unlikely.
All other possible results, such as a clear victory for Republican Donald Trump or a narrow victory for either side, are unfavourable for Poland and other US allies. The expert emphasises that the US remains a key security guarantor.
If Trump were to win the presidency with a clear lead, his administration might feel motivated to implement its controversial plans, including pressuring Ukraine to recognise Russian territorial gains without sufficient safeguards.
Russia and China could exploit US weakness
Smoleński points out that even a minimal margin of victory for Trump in the elections could lead to tensions among his opponents. Although there is no expectation of contesting the results, acceptance of his political actions might be limited.
There is also the scenario of Harris winning by a narrow margin, which carries the risk of destabilisation. This could result in attempts to question the legality of the elections and incite violence by right-wing extremists supporting Trump as the true winner.
The expert also notes the possibility of Russia and China exploiting such a weakening of the United States. In the extreme case, potential conflicts could include intensified Russian actions in Ukraine, a Chinese attack on Taiwan, and a full-scale war outbreak in the Middle East. This would signify a significant burden on American resources.
Trump's triumph could strengthen right-wing movements in Europe
Smoleński also predicts that Trump's triumph could stimulate right-wing movements in Europe. It might mobilise political parties in Germany, France, and Poland.
The speaker mentions the latest polls, which are unfavourable for Harris. He recalls that polls previously underestimated Trump's chances in 2016 and Biden's in 2020. He states that the democratic system in the USA relies on the peaceful transfer of power, and its functioning is threatened if one side does not accept the election results.
