Expert warns of potential escalation in Russian hybrid attacks on NATO
Marek Menkiszak, an expert from the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), commented on the topic of potential military aggression by Russia against Western countries in an interview with the Polish Press Agency. He believes Russia is unlikely to decide on such actions before the upcoming presidential elections in the US and also before Donald Trump's possible assumption of office. Menkiszak emphasized that the Kremlin has high hopes associated with the US elections.
In his annual address to the nation on Friday, Putin warned about the danger of a nuclear conflict if NATO troops were introduced into Ukraine. The dictator also repeated his accusations that the West wants to destroy Russia from within and warned that Russia will not allow anyone to interfere in its internal affairs.
Will Russia intensify its actions?
However, Menkiszak drew attention to the fact that the intensification of Russian hybrid attacks cannot be ruled out. "It's about an intensification of what we're already dealing with, namely cyberattacks, attacks on critical infrastructure, political sabotage, diversion, and attempts to destabilize the situation in member states. Especially significant and neighboring ones that have an influence on the West's policy towards Russia," he explained.
The expert admitted that Poland is highly threatened by such actions. "In a number of Putin's speeches, Poland regularly appears as a source of threat to Russia and a hostile country. During the speeches, Putin devotes a lot of space to Poland, significantly more than to the Baltic states," he stated.
"The darkest scenarios"
Menkiszak noted that the darkest scenarios, in which Russia uses military forces against any of the NATO member states, are not excluded. But, he added, their realization will only be possible when the Kremlin considers that NATO and the USA are not able to effectively respond.
According to the expert, the presidential elections in the States could be a turning point in Russia's actions. Menkiszak admitted that this will be a key moment, "Primarily because of the military support for Ukraine. We must remember that Ukraine as a country is half maintained and fights thanks to Western support. Half of this support comes from the USA," he explained.
He emphasized that the USA funds approximately 85% of ammunition supplies for Kyiv, therefore any change in the position of the President of the United States, and consequently a change in policy, would have significant implications for the further fate of the war.
Menkiszak also drew attention to the fact that the main deterrent factor from the Russian perspective is the ability of the USA to provide immediate military support and use a powerful military potential. "If the Russians came to the conclusion that after Donald Trump's victory, the American policy in the field of transatlantic security changes – and based on some of Trump's statements, we see that this is not excluded – Russians will use more and more aggressive methods," he assessed.
"Among the many factors that Russians take into account, undoubtedly the most important are the elections in the USA. Moscow associates them with great hopes," he added.
What after Trump's victory?
At the same time, Menkiszak noted that Trump's first presidency was problematic for the Russians. "Trump is unpredictable. The Kremlin was disappointed by him because it was counting on strategic 'deals' that did not happen. On the other hand, the Russians believe that we have a new political situation, both internationally and in the United States itself. They think that Trump himself has also changed and will pursue a much more radical policy. This is Russia's hope," he said.
Therefore, he said, it is unlikely that Russians will proceed with any radical actions that could hinder Trump, and additionally provide arguments to his opponents. "Assuming Trump wins the election, I believe that the Russians will wait until he formulates his political assumptions. They may make test moves, but I do not think they will act radically. Of course, except for the offensive in Ukraine, which is expected this summer, especially before the NATO summit in Washington," he explained.
