Europe urged to bolster defences as Russian threat looms
The Danish Military Intelligence (FE) has outlined three potential scenarios of threats to Europe posed by Russia following the conclusion of the conflict with Ukraine. These scenarios assume that the United States will not support the European NATO countries, and these countries will not adequately strengthen their defences.
According to the FE, it is improbable that Russia will initiate a war against NATO countries while still engaged in military actions in Ukraine. However, once the conflict concludes, Russia may be able to redirect considerable military resources, thereby increasing its military capabilities and posing a direct threat to NATO.
The report assesses that Russia will require approximately six months following the war with Ukraine to be capable of engaging in a local conflict with a neighbouring country. Within two years, Russia could present a tangible threat to one or more NATO countries and be prepared for a regional conflict involving several countries in the Baltic Sea region.
Long-term threat
Danish intelligence forecasts that in roughly five years, Russia will be equipped for a large-scale conflict on the European continent. This scenario will be feasible if the Kremlin assumes that the United States will not assist Europe and European NATO countries do not arm themselves at a pace comparable to Russia.
The Danish military intelligence report underlines that Europe must enhance its defence capabilities to address potential threats from Russia. The Danish agency stresses the necessity for cooperation and coordinated action within NATO to ensure the continent's security.
