Europe steps up: Can it meet Ukraine's ammunition needs?
Cancelling supplies from the USA to Ukraine means that European countries must bridge the gap. This is particularly important when considering ammunition consumed in large quantities on the front every day. We examine whether, three years after the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Europe is prepared to do this.
The war in Ukraine is the largest full-scale conflict in Europe since the Second World War. However, its current nature resembles that of the First World War, enhanced by technological innovations such as precision ammunition and drones.
Ukraine can use between 3,000 and 8,000 shells daily, necessitating a monthly production capacity of up to 100,000 shells. This volume was unachievable for European firms in 2022, but after three years of conflict, the situation has improved in many countries. Now, producing up to one million shells annually may be realistic, and according to some projections, it could reach even two million by 2026.
European artillery ammunition production
Germany produced fewer than 30,000 shells annually in 2022, but political decisions and efforts by the country's largest defence company, Rheinmetall, have led it to aim for a production volume of 700,000 shells annually by 2025.
However, this number also includes the production capacity of Rheinmetall's Denel plant in South Africa, which faces a political ban from the local government on producing ammunition for Ukraine. Therefore, the production volume of Rheinmetall may be somewhat lower.
One of the larger ammunition producers in Europe is primarily the Nammo corporation, which has factories in Norway, Finland, and Sweden. Large factories typically had a production capacity of 20,000 to 30,000 shells annually, but their efficiency has increased recently. For instance, Nammo's factories in the Swedish city of Karlskoga doubled their production by the end of 2024, and Finland's Nammo Lapua Oy plant had similar projections in 2023.
The total production of Scandinavian countries is estimated to range from 100,000 to 200,000 shells annually. Additionally, Denmark decided to reactivate a closed ammunition factory.
Another potential source of ammunition for Ukraine is the French Nexter corporation, which currently produces 50,000 shells annually and plans to expand to 400,000 within three years. Kyiv can also rely on British BAE Systems factories, which aim to increase production capacity eightfold by 2026. Additional support may come from factories in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, capable of producing over 100,000 to 200,000 shells each year. Furthermore, Poland's production capabilities currently range from 30,000 to 40,000 shells annually. Like other European nations, Warsaw also intends to boost production in the coming years.
Of course, expanding capabilities must be accompanied by government orders and a shift in current production toward Ukraine, as current production capabilities are also intended for national needs and export customers. However, some Western countries may allocate part of their strategic resources in the short term.
This is not the estimated 4 million shells annually supported by Russia, which is significantly bolstered by supplies from North Korea. Still, with modern 155 mm artillery systems, fewer shells can achieve a significant effect. Nevertheless, following the withdrawal of US support to Ukraine, their delivery should be increased, even at the cost of temporarily weakening the defensive capabilities of some European countries.
