Energy sector's CO2 emissions hit record high despite clean tech efforts

2023 was another year of growth in CO2 emissions related to energy. Although the rate of growth is declining, it represents a global embarrassment for governments that consistently fail to meet climate goals.

This year's climate summit is the 29th in history. Since the first one, organised in 1995, global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by about half.

We also recorded increases in 2023, and this applies to the energy sector as well, which is responsible for the largest amount of emissions on a global scale.

Global carbon dioxide emissions related to energy increased by approximately 410 million tonnes in 2023, or by 1.1%. This is a slower pace than the previous year when there was an increase of around 489 million tonnes.

As the latest analysis from the International Energy Agency shows, the change would have been much worse if not for the massive deployment of new technologies like photovoltaics, wind turbines, nuclear power plants, electric cars, and heat pumps. Without such technologies, the global increase in CO2 emissions over the past five years would have been three times higher.

Droughts in many countries, including China and the US, which are a global powerhouse in terms of hydroelectric plants, significantly influenced the increase in emissions. Due to drought issues, hydroelectric plants couldn't generate as much electricity as they could have, making it necessary to replace them with fossil fuels. Therefore, 40% of the emission increase is due to the inefficiency of hydroelectric plants.

Such "justifications" do not change the most important fact: energy-related CO2 emissions reached a record level in 2023, amounting to approximately 37.4 billion tonnes.

At this point, it's worth recalling the Paris Agreement signed in 2015. Within its framework, about 200 United Nations member states committed to reducing emissions to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius, and preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The latter goal is practically unattainable now, and its permanent crossing might occur within this decade. To later return to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, we would have to start absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere on a massive scale, which at this point is technologically fanciful.

In the year the Paris Agreement was signed, global carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector amounted to approximately 32 billion tonnes. The International Energy Agency was then pleased that these emissions remained at roughly the same level since 2013. The Agency pointed out that "flattening" the growth rate was possible thanks to the implementation of renewable energy sources, responsible for about 90% of new electric power generation in 2015. "At the same time, the global economy continued to grow by over 3%, which is another proof that the link between economic growth and emission growth is weakening," the IEA commented.

Since then, the narrative of each subsequent year sounds similar: emissions are rising slightly, renewables are being implemented faster, and the link between GDP growth and emission growth is weakening. Therefore, one should soon expect a trend reversal and the commencement of an emission decline. But the decline still does not come because the incessant pursuit of economic growth ultimately prevails, meaning a constantly rising demand for various types of energy. As a result, new "clean" energy sources introduced into the system still can't provide enough electricity to start displacing fossil fuels.

The effect? CO2 emissions since 2015, despite the year-on-year story of their supposed "flattening," have already increased by 16.5%.

Nonetheless, the International Energy Agency presents the events of recent years as a success.

"Developed economies recorded a record drop in CO2 emissions in 2023, even as their GDP grew. Their emissions fell to the lowest level in 50 years, while the demand for coal returned to levels not seen since the early 20th century. The drop in emissions in developed economies resulted from a combination of strong use of renewable energy sources, switching from coal to gas, improving energy efficiency, and milder industrial production. Last year was the first in which at least half of the electric power generated in developed economies came from low-emission sources, such as renewable energy sources and nuclear power," informs IEA.

- The transition to clean energy has undergone a series of extreme condition tests in the last five years and has demonstrated its resilience," adds Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director. - "The pandemic, the energy crisis, and geopolitical instability - all could have derailed efforts to build cleaner and safer energy systems. Instead, in many economies, we observed the opposite. The transition to clean energy is progressing at a rapid pace and limiting emissions - even amid a global increase in energy demand in 2023 compared to 2022," emphasises Birol.

Besides the mentioned problems, other important factors are influencing the continued rise in emissions.

One example is the fact that the deployment of clean energy is still overly concentrated in developed economies and China. In 2023, they accounted for 90% of new photovoltaic and wind power plants globally, as well as 95% of electric vehicle sales. If developing countries continue to develop on fossil fuels, it poses another serious problem for climate protection.

Furthermore, not all clean energy-related technologies made progress in 2023. Sales of heat pumps, although slight, did indeed drop (also in Poland). People simply refrained from purchasing them due to fears of rising living costs. According to the IEA, this clearly shows how important additional and significant political support is for a fair transition.

Meanwhile, India, in terms of emissions from the energy sector, surpassed the European Union for the first time (it's worth noting, though, that per capita emissions in India still remain significantly below the global average). This was due to strong GDP growth and reduced hydroelectric power production.

The ongoing reopening of the economy after the pandemic and reduced production from hydroelectric plants were responsible for the increase in emissions in China, which amounted to approximately 565 million tonnes. In other words: if not for the increase in China, global emissions would have actually begun to fall.

The problem is that some "if only" appears regularly every year. In times of escalating crises, it's hard to expect that to change. Paradoxically, one of the biggest crises is the climate crisis, which we simply cannot mitigate without rapid changes in the energy sector.