China unveils stealth advances: The H‑20’s potential impact

The 15th edition of Airshow China 2024, which will run from 12 to 17 November 2024, promises surprises. The hosts, as well as guests, will ensure this. During the event, the Russians will present their best fighter, the fifth-generation Su-57, which generates more sarcastic comments than admiration. On the other hand, the Chinese are announcing the official debut of Beijing's second stealth fighter, the J-35A. Photos of the still-mysterious J-20 fighter cockpit, which is also expected to be at the show, have surfaced online.

Aviation experts assumed that Airshow China 2024 would be a good opportunity for the debut of the Chinese strategic fighter Xi'an H-20. However, the National Interest service reports that it will likely happen during Airshow China 2026. Delays will allow Beijing to refine the aircraft, which could pose a serious challenge to the American strategic bombers B-2 Spirit and their successors, the B-21 Raider bombers.

Photos available on Chinese social media likely do not show the final concept of the H-20 but have already drawn attention to the direction the Chinese have taken in constructing the aircraft. The plane is being developed in a flying wing configuration. The tailless design, without a distinct fuselage or empennage, can reduce fuel consumption and allow advanced radar and missile systems to detect the bomber, increasing its potential during missions over disputed or hostile territory.

According to Army Recognition, "it is expected that the H-20 will be a highly advanced asset in China's strategic arsenal, designed for extended range, large payloads, and increased survivability in contested environments." The exact specifications of the aircraft are currently unknown, but there are claims that its range will reach up to 8,500 kilometres, and the stealth-equipped plane will be capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons. Its payload capacity is expected to be no less than 10 metric tonnes. Importantly, unlike the currently used Xi'an H-6 bombers in Beijing, which are licensed versions of the Soviet Tupolev Tu-16, the H-20 is a native project.

Thus, the H-20 could become an important element of China's nuclear triad and state deterrence strategy, as noted by the American service. Analysts from National Interest, however, believe that American officials do not express much concern about the progress of the H-20 project. The Pentagon is reportedly sceptical of its capabilities. Americans (including Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach) believe that the H-20 is far behind the capabilities offered by future U.S. bombers, the B-21 Raider, and is also lagging behind the B-2 Spirit bombers.

However, the overall pace of China's military expansion is concerning. Beijing allocates significant resources to the development of its own weapons systems, fighters, and the aforementioned bombers. It is also amassing nuclear weapons, which was noted in a recent report by the Defence Intelligence Agency, the American military intelligence agency operating within the Pentagon's structures. The document indicates that in 2020, Beijing possessed approximately 200 operational nuclear warheads, currently has about 500, and by 2030, their number could exceed a thousand.