Bosnia teeters on brink of conflict amid secession threats

If the leaders of the Republika Srpska - the predominantly Serb part of Bosnia and Herzegovina - announce secession, a war will break out in the country within an hour - warns the German newspaper "Die Welt". The President of Republika Srpska can count on the support of the President of Russia.

The German newspaper recalls the recent threats of secession caused by the discussion around the UN resolution regarding the Srebrenica genocide, which, among other things, would establish July 11 - the anniversary of the events in eastern Bosnia and Herzegovina - as the International Day of Remembrance of the Genocide.

In July 1995, in the vicinity of Srebrenica - a so-called safe zone under UN supervision until it was taken over by the Serbs - over 8,000 men and boys, residents of the country's Bosniak Muslims, were murdered. The remains of about a thousand victims are still being searched for.

President of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic warned that the adoption of the resolution could in the future lead to claims for war reparations against Belgrade and the dissolution of the Republika Srpska (RS) - a part of Bosnia and Herzegovina recognized by the peace agreement in Dayton. The Republika Srpska included, among other things, territories where genocide and ethnic cleansing were committed.

President of RS Milorad Dodik announced that "the authorities of the region are already showing determination in implementing actions aimed at achieving independence" of the part of Bosnia and Herzegovina predominantly inhabited by Serbs. Dodik denied at the same time that a genocide occurred in the vicinity of Srebrenica.

"Die Welt" reminds that Dodik can count on the support of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Serbian President Amil Durakovi. Vice President of RS Ćamil Duraković warns, "If Dodik announces secession, a war will break out in Bosnia and Herzegovina within an hour."

"Bosnia and Herzegovina is the most unstable and vulnerable country in the region, and we are currently facing the most serious situation since the dissolution of Yugoslavia. Any conflict here could lead to a return to the 90s." - notes the newspaper.

"The international community must intervene" - appeals Duraković.

The Kremlin is trying to open a new front in the fight against the West in the Balkans, fueling conflict and instability, experts from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) argued in March in the Wall Street Journal. According to them, Russia intends to use Serbia to destabilize the situation in Kosovo or Bosnia and Herzegovina.

They point to Russia's influence operations inciting war, Serbia's increasing defence spending, or Chinese weapon deliveries to Belgrade. They also cite a February report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence USA predicting an increased risk of conflict in the Western Balkans. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also issued similar warnings about Russia's plans.