Weimar Triangle leaders reconcile over Ukraine aid amid crisis
Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron sought to utilise the Weimar Triangle, alongside Donald Tusk, to smooth over disagreements on aid to Ukraine. Reportedly, the leaders of Germany and France were eager to reconcile, with cloistered discussions affirming the critical months that lay ahead for both Europe and Ukraine.
The impromptu Weimar Triangle meeting in Berlin, prompted by Donald Tusk following a trip to the White House, essentially reconciled Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron on the matter of Ukrainian aid, at least in principle. They acknowledged that ongoing disputes were untenable amid Ukraine’s escalating crisis.
Berlin had faulted Paris for excessively discussing aid, including a willingness to deploy troops, while concurrently contributing insufficient funds towards rearmament. Conversely, the French flagged Germany's reluctance to send Taurus cruise missiles. A combined press conference with Tusk, Scholz, and Macron aimed to put an end to these tensions.
According to insiders, discussions between Scholz, Macron, and Tusk were meant to underscore the gravity of the situation. Sources hint that Washington has lately hinted to allies, including Poland, its hopes for the conflict in Ukraine to conclude or reach a stand-still on Kyiv's terms within two years, fearing a shift in focus towards the Pacific and a possible Chinese assault on Taiwan might be necessary afterwards. This view is reportedly a bipartisan consensus in the U.S.
Sources suggest that, from the perspective of Polish officials and allies, the risk of Russia launching attacks on Poland or other European nations hasn't been this high since the Second World War. Leaders remain convinced, however, that decisive action could significantly alter this scenario, enabling Europe to potentially achieve military supremacy over Russia in two years.
Berlin and Paris compromise
Observations during the concluding Weimar Triangle press conference indicated a tactical retreat from Berlin and Paris, with support from Warsaw. Instead of lobbing accusations, signals of conciliation were evident.
The German Chancellor announced the creation of a joint coalition for long-range missiles within the Rammstein framework despite previous scepticism towards such aid amongst NATO members. This led to the proposition for a more extensive military support framework. Meanwhile, Scholz underlined that despite unconditional support for Ukraine, Europe is not in conflict with Russia.
The French President hinted at a willingness to support allied efforts in Ukraine, such as in cyberspace, but emphasised avoiding actions that might escalate the situation. He also withdrew mentions of deploying NATO troops to Ukraine, a move that has been shelved by most EU leaders.
According to diplomatic sources, Scholz, behind closed doors, did not provide any new assurances on Taurus missiles on Friday. Despite forming a new coalition, he stopped short of confirming German government approval for transferring long-range cruise missiles.
Macron clarified that previous statements regarding troop deployments reflected a political posture designed to make Putin ponder potential European responses. However, he indicated that such discourse would not materialise into action at least for the remainder of this year.
France can rely on support from Warsaw and Berlin for further allied involvement. This encompasses aiding Kyiv in cyberspace, mine clearance of Ukrainian territories, and border security against Belarus.
Stockpile review
Insiders reveal that discussions in Berlin concluded that military support for Ukraine will intensify, with Warsaw, Berlin, and Paris pushing the agenda. The focus is also on urging countries like Italy, Spain, and Portugal to contribute more. Moreover, leaders of most EU countries are conducting an urgent review of their arsenals, ensuring previously withheld ammunition reaches Kyiv.
"The coming months are crucial. The minimum objective is to prevent any deterioration at the Ukrainian front by year-end. Particularly until the U.S. elections this autumn, Europe must take the lead in supporting Kyiv. This involves pooling and expending all European resources towards aiding Ukraine and procuring weapons," an informant disclosed.
Sources also revealed plans forge ahead in Berlin to channel proceeds from frozen Russian assets exclusively towards arming Ukraine, with an approximate support of £3.6-4 billion annually. Meanwhile, the U.S. urges that all such assets be utilised for arming Ukraine, a stance facing resistance within the EU.
Exiting the Weimar Triangle summit, Tusk, Macron, and Scholz believed they had temporarily resolved the Franco-German dispute. There was an optimism that this reconciliation would bolster pressure on other EU nations for rapid aid provision to Ukraine. Poland is under no illusion, however; Berlin and Paris are likely to maintain vigilance over each other, with the forthcoming summit in Poland this early summer serving as a test to whether promises transition into tangible actions and whether the situation in Ukraine has at least not regressed.
