US Nuclear Missile Upgrade Faces Delays and Spiraling Costs
Furthermore, the deployment of the Sentinel is expected to take about two years longer than anticipated. It is currently assumed that the initial operational readiness of the LGM-35A missiles will be announced by June 2030. This seems to be all right since the USAF's non-extendable deadline is September 2030. But this may soon become outdated.
11 March 2024 21:55
In September 2020, the GBSD was estimated to cost 95.8 billion dollars. Currently, there is no hope that costs will fall below 131 billion dollars. According to Bloomberg, this is now the official value of the programme. Moreover, this amount might still increase, and accurate data is expected in the summer when a GBSD programme review will be released. Since 2016, the programme's costs have been steadily increasing. The current at least 37% cost increase is mainly due to the economic situation after the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war.
The situation was also worsened by the increasingly frequent complications related to the construction of silos and alert facilities (Missile Alert Facility): underground launch control centres and auxiliary buildings (Launch Control Support Building). It is only seemingly an easy undertaking. Not only do the facilities require surface expansion, but they also need to be modernised to meet 21st-century standards.
And all this costs money. Most importantly, it is necessary to lay completely new wiring, the total length of which exceeds 12,025 km. In addition, there's the installation of new communication systems, the acquisition of fifty-six new wheeled transport-loading vehicles, and the construction of missile storage and technical service rooms.
According to the Pentagon, the unit cost of acquiring the Sentinel was about 118 million dollars in 2020, calculated as the sum of development work, production, and orders. It is now about 162 million dollars.
The troubles of the Minuteman III successor are evidenced by the planned shift in the schedule for beginning the missile replacement process from 2027 to 2031. Thus, the new weapons system, which is a ground component of the American nuclear triad, not only faces significant delays but also costs much more than anticipated. Americans have described this cost increase as "critical".
In such a situation, the air force was forced – as required by law – to notify Congress of the GBSD programme's breach of the Nunn-McCurdy Act. This is necessary when the estimated costs increase by more than 15%. When the increase exceeds 30 percentage points, it is termed in the jargon as a "significant" breach of the law. Above this threshold, we deal with a "critical" breach. By the summer of 2024, the USAF is to prepare a current cost analysis.
The air force plans to purchase 659 new LGM-35A Sentinel ballistic missiles and upgrade 450 existing launch facilities, which housed 400 Minutemans III. The programme's goal is also to carry out the modernisation of 400 underground silos and the rest of the infrastructure. The Sentinels will replace the Minutemans at F.E. Warren, Minot, and Malmstrom Air Force Bases.
Current plans are to achieve initial operational capability for the first nine units by June 2029. According to a USAF spokesperson, this deadline could be delayed by up to two years. Full operational readiness for 400 missiles planned for 2036 is also in great doubt, but it will be somewhat easier in this case due to the greater time margin. The GBSD, being the most important modernisation venture of the Department of Defense, has already aroused serious interest in Congress. With strong support from the legislative power, it seems unlikely that the programme will be cancelled.
– The Sentinel is absolutely essential for the future of our nuclear deterrence – said the Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee Mike Rogers. – I commit to vigorously overseeing the programme and ensuring that the air force makes the necessary changes to address cost overruns while continuing to develop the programme.
In addition to the June report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO), the chief American government accountability body, there were also voices of dissatisfaction from the USAF in November. Frank Kendall, the secretary of the air force, clearly stated that he was very concerned about the rising costs of the programme and was looking for some remedies. However, three months later, the effects were poor. According to Kendall, everything must be done to save the programme. The Department of Defense must ensure that the Sentinel is ready on time and allows for the replacement of the currently used ballistic missiles before their resources run out. Failure is not an option.
Financial problems have been added to delays caused by staffing shortages, permit processing, and issues related to non-public information technology infrastructure. Moreover, the programme experienced disruptions in the supply chain, which led to further delays.
In this whole bag of failures, there was a glimmer of good news. On January 16, Northrop Grumman reported the completion of the first full static test of the Sentinel's two-stage rocket engine at the Arnold Engineering Development Complex at Arnold Air Force Base in Tullahoma, Tennessee. The tests were conducted in a vacuum chamber simulating flight in the upper atmosphere and space. The three-stage missile passed its first ground engine test on March 2, 2023, when the missile's first stage was tested.
Despite all these problems, the GBSD faces a very important year, as it awaits two so-called milestones. First and foremost, the programme will undergo a Critical Design Review, and the first trial launch of the test version of the Sentinel will be executed. It will be a crucial time for the programme, which is intended to define the deterrent strength of the United States until 2075.
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