US election stakes: A pivotal moment amid global unrest
The upcoming presidential elections in the United States may be the most significant in decades. The new media will play a very large role in them. They also say that although the elections are on 5th November, the battle for the results may last longer.
4 November 2024 13:21
Experts on this year's contest for the presidential seat in the United States unanimously say it is exceptional.
The elections are taking place amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine and the tense situation in the Middle East. This means that the outcome of the elections will be significant not only for the United States but also for the upcoming four-year term. It may be decisive for the global situation in a longer-term perspective, notes Prof. Łukasz Korporowicz from the Faculty of Law and Administration at the University of Łódź.
Elections in the USA. "In the polls, one candidate leads, then the other"
Dr Przemysław Piotr Damski from the Faculty of International and Political Studies at the University of Łódź emphasises that, for the first time in a long while, the elections are so close. In the polls, one candidate leads, then the other, but these results are all within the margin of error. In the American legal system, saying that one of the presidential candidates has a 1 per cent lead in the polls is misleading, points out Dr Damski.
Experts predict that the fight for the presidency may not end on election day and may last long after. Potential court processes could move the battles into courtrooms. - There are already voices suggesting that Donald Trump and his team will challenge the appointment of Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party candidate. As we recall, Joe Biden withdrew after the elections at the delegate level and before the Democratic convention in Chicago. The situation is unprecedented because Kamala Harris is the first candidate for President of the United States in 200 years who did not win the primaries - said Prof. Korporowicz to PAP.
Kamala Harris's team emphatically asserts that Donald Trump poses a threat to democracy. He is facing a court trial, and a potential victory could allow him to pardon himself.
Dr Jakub Stępień from the Faculty of Law and Administration at the University of Łódź highlights the unprecedented impact of new media on the election campaign. - Let's consider the involvement of new technologies in the campaign. The participation of Elon Musk, head of Platform X, in this debate will be fascinating from a research perspective - how social media can influence the election outcome. This is new because big-tech and social media have never entered the political debate so strongly before. The first analyses of what is happening on the former Twitter indicate that a specific message dominates, and algorithms promote a certain narrative - emphasises Dr Stępień.
Attempted assassination on Donald Trump. "Few remember now"
Experts note that Trump, besides the support from Elon Musk and his MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement supporters, received a powerful weapon in the form of an attempted assassination on his life and media coverage of this case.
Now, few remember that Donald Trump was a victim of an assassination attempt, although several weeks ago, a photo of Trump with a raised fist after the failed assassination was declared by some media as the most important photo of the 21st century. It was considered a decisive argument in the elections. Everything was supposed to be "swept", and the Democrats were disallowed. Meanwhile, we live in times where information lasts 72 hours, which was in this case. After a week, it "dissipated" - says Dr Stępień.
Dr Damski notes that when Joe Biden was the presidential candidate, there was a sense that few believed in this candidacy. Sponsors withdrew, and there was an atmosphere of defeat. The polls also showed Trump winning. His team was surprised by Biden's withdrawal and unprepared for it.
The introduction of Harris into the campaign revived it with a breath of optimism and freshness. Harris invigorated the campaign. It echoes Barack Obama's earlier election campaign, and involving the former president in the fight to support Kamala Harris strengthened her standing among people who remember Obama's positive message—the famous "Yes, we can"—emphasises Dr. Damski.
Who will win over the voters? Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? According to experts, in the final stages of the election campaign, both parties are no longer focused on winning over undecided voters but primarily aim to mobilise their electorates. Whoever succeeds will move into the White House in January.
