Unwavering neutrality: Why Ireland resists NATO despite Russian threats

Since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, Ireland has been considered the weakest link in the West's defence. Despite reports of suspicious Russian activity in the waters surrounding Ireland, this has not sparked a severe debate about joining NATO in the country.

Since gaining independence in 1922, Ireland has consistently maintained a policy of neutrality. Although there are sometimes disputes or discussions about what neutrality means in specific situations, the principle itself is not questioned.

Ireland's neutrality is more a result of government policy adopted right after the establishment of the modern Irish state and maintained since then rather than a constitutional requirement. It differs somewhat from the traditional model of neutrality, which usually means maintaining a strong military and a complete prohibition of any foreign military presence on its territory. However, the Irish armed forces are small, and the country allows foreign military aircraft to land at Shannon Airport under specified conditions for refuelling.

During World War II, Ireland was one of the few European countries remaining neutral. The embassy of Nazi Germany operated there without obstacles throughout the war. However, this neutrality was not absolute - Ireland shared some intelligence data with the Allies and allowed the use of a small portion of its airspace between Northern Ireland and the Atlantic Ocean.

During the negotiations leading to the formation of NATO in 1948-49, Ireland was asked about membership but refused. The reason was a reluctance to ally with Great Britain, as it could be seen as relinquishing claims to Northern Ireland. It also declined to enter into a bilateral military alliance with the USA. Nevertheless, in 1952, it made a secret agreement with Great Britain, which effectively ceded the protection of Irish airspace to the British Royal Air Force due to the lack of adequate capabilities of the Irish air forces.

The issue of interpreting and maintaining Ireland's neutrality resurfaced when the country joined the European Economic Community in 1973. There were considerations regarding the potential future, but no specific actions were taken. This situation repeated when the EEC transformed into the European Union, which began to have a standard foreign and security policy.

In the late 1990s, Ireland moved closer to NATO by joining the Partnership for Peace programme and the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. As a result, it increasingly cooperated with NATO in peacekeeping missions. However, the condition for Ireland's participation in any mission is whether they have a UN mandate. At the beginning of the 21st century, Ireland allowed the U.S. Air Force to use its Shannon Airport and airspace for planes transporting soldiers involved in operations in Afghanistan and Iraq - provided that no weapons were being transported.

Despite all these cases of somewhat "stretching" the principle of neutrality, neither government policy nor the public's attitude toward maintaining neutrality has changed. The issue of joining NATO has never been considered or been part of the platform of any major political party.

The issue of neutrality and its interpretation returned to the forefront just before Russia invaded Ukraine and during the war. Reports of suspicious Russian activity in the waters around Ireland or near its airspace became more frequent. This raised concerns, especially regarding the possibility of Russia cutting underwater cables or conducting cyberattacks.

Earlier this year, the British think tank Policy Exchange pointed out the vast number of Russian embassy staff in Ireland, given the scale of relations between the two countries. It expressed concern that through Ireland, the intelligence services of Russia, China, and Iran could infiltrate the United Kingdom.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, then-Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar stated that the fact that the country is not a member of military alliances does not mean it is politically neutral in this conflict. He emphasised that Ireland's support for Ukraine's territorial integrity is unwavering and unconditional.

However, this does not mean that Ireland considered following in the footsteps of Finland and Sweden, which abandoned their long-held policy of neutrality due to the war in Ukraine. In mid-last year, the Irish government unequivocally stated that it did not plan to seek NATO membership or abandon neutrality. None of the Irish parties proposed such a move, and even if such an idea were to arise, due to the public solid attachment to neutrality, the issue would undoubtedly require a referendum. According to a mid-last year survey for "The Irish Times," 61% of respondents supported maintaining neutrality, and only 26% supported a change.

Ireland is one of four EU member states not part of NATO - the others being Austria, Cyprus, and Malta.