Unprecedented flooding shatters records in Russia and Kazakhstan

Maria Shahgedanova, a climatologist from the University of Reading, explains that spring floods in Russia and northern Kazakhstan are to be expected and occur regularly. She highlights past floods in 1922, 1942, and 1957. However, the severity of the current situation is unprecedented, breaking all previous records, she adds.

The floods have especially impacted the region of Orenburg in Russia, where the Ural River has burst its banks. A similar situation with the Ishim River has affected the Siberian regions of Tyumen, Omsk, and northern Kazakhstan.

Shahgedanova explains that the main cause of the flooding is the abrupt arrival of warm spring weather, which leads to the rapid melting of substantial winter snow and the violent rise of river levels. More than half of this year's floods in the region began this way; a third were caused by rainfall, and about 15% by river ice jams.

Last winter, this part of Russia and Kazakhstan experienced above-average snowfalls, with snow depths in some areas exceeding the usual levels by 60%. The onset of spring brought a sudden increase in temperatures from below-freezing to nearly 20 degrees Celsius within a few days. This swift transition, coupled with heavy rains, "exacerbated the already critical situation," turning the surplus snow into vast quantities of water.

AFP reports that scientists concur global warming—propelled by rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere—is leading to increasingly extreme weather, including floods. Nevertheless, Shahgedanova remarks there is "no clear trend towards more frequent floods" in Russia and Kazakhstan. She states that the link between the floods in Russia 2024 and climate change isn’t as straightforward.

The Moscow Times also highlights human activities contributing to the flooding. It discusses a dam breach in Orsk, a city of 220,000 near the Kazakhstan border, which flooded thousands of homes. According to Dmitry Boldyrev, a human rights advocate quoted by Russian media, the reservoir upstream could have mitigated some of the flooding but was already partially filled.

"The employees were alarmed enough in January to ask management to begin the flow of water. But they did not want to because the previous year, there was not enough water," Boldyrev said.

In Orenburg, a city along the Ural, some residents are calling for the mayor's resignation for permitting residential development on floodplains.