Ukrainian offensive in Belgorod shakes Moscow’s confidence
The Ukrainian offensive in Russia has expanded to the Belgorod region, where fierce battles are taking place. What's next? According to Lt. Col. (Res.) Maciej Korowaj, Ukraine won't advance so deep as to lose its air defence capabilities. "But they will go deep enough to draw attention and force the Russians into combat," says Korowaj.
For several days, Ukrainians have been conducting an offensive in the Russian Kursk region. The army crossed the border early on Tuesday, 6th August. Since then, according to Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who spoke during a meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, 74 localities have been captured. Compared to the Kursk region, battles in the Belgorod region are fiercer.
According to "The Washington Post," Russian troops in Belgorod seemed prepared for the arrival of Ukrainian units. "Although some retreated, the area was fortified with tank barriers made of 'dragon's teeth' and heavily mined. Ukrainians almost immediately came under intense artillery fire, drones, and aerial bombs," reads the analysis by "The Washington Post."
Throughout the operation, it remains a fact that Ukraine is delivering painful blows to Russia on its own territory.
The Ukrainian intelligence service reported on Thursday the capture of over 100 Russian soldiers, which they claim is the "largest mass capture" of enemy soldiers at the same time. There are already signals that Russia wants to arrange a prisoner exchange.
"Ukraine maintains 'information hygiene' during the offensive in the Kursk region. The Russians, on the other hand, exaggerate the losses on the Ukrainian side and ensure that they have everything under control. They do not. Ukraine holds the gains and is still capable of attacking. The course of this operation indicates that its goal is to 'utilise Russian units.' Ukraine wants to expand as much captured territory as possible and engage as many Russian forces as possible," Maciej Korowaj, a former military intelligence officer and analyst, explained.
He believes Ukraine will not advance so deep into Russian territory as to lose its air defence capabilities.
"Also to ensure that their logistics do not suffer. But they will go deep enough to draw attention and force the Russians into combat. We see that Ukrainian units are largely succeeding in this," the expert assesses.
"Russians have a problem with the offensive"
In his opinion, the Russians want to solve the problem at the lowest possible cost.
"They use resources that are not experienced in offensives in southern Ukraine. As seen in the Kursk region, it is not enough. Similar to the engagement of conscripted Russian soldiers, it is insufficient. Russians generally have a problem with this offensive, as they do not know the goals of the Ukrainian army's offensive," comments Lt. Col. (Res.) Maciej Korowaj.
According to the expert, Moscow is confused because Ukraine only provides necessary information.
"Unlike last June and the offensive in Zaporizhzhia. Back then, everything was practically known in advance. Additionally, the Kremlin has a problem because the current offensive has removed the labels that Russia placed on the Ukrainian army after last year's failed offensive. Moscow claimed that Ukraine had no strength left and was wasting the weapons supplied by the West. And that Ukraine was no longer capable of winning anything on the front. Now these myths have been debunked," emphasises the former military officer.
"It's a shock for the Kremlin"
Maciej Korowaj points out another important aspect.
"Additionally, Kyiv has the support of the West, which hasn't condemned the operation and supports Ukraine both informationally and materially. It's a shock for the Kremlin. Moscow is in a very difficult situation. It needs to reformulate the information strategy of this war," says Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj.
The French daily "Le Monde" wrote about the matter on Friday, stressing that while Western allies of Ukraine are surprised by the Ukrainian offensive in Russia, it hasn't shaken their support for Kyiv, and within the European Union, Poland has expressed "clear" support for Ukraine.
"Not only Russia was surprised by Ukraine's incursion into its territory. Kyiv's allies also seem surprised, (...) most displaying significant caution and discretion, not hiding satisfaction," it reads. And further: "Were Ukraine's allies forewarned about the operation? It's unknown. The day after the attack on 6th August, U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller stated in any case, that the United States had not been forewarned," adds the daily.
As Korowaj emphasises in his conversation with WP, the operation in the Russian Kursk region allows Ukraine to seize strategic initiative from the Russian Federation.
"They want to stop Russian actions on the southern front and force the Russians to fight on Ukrainian terms on Russian soil. So far, Ukraine is succeeding, and this is already the second week. This means that despite recent claims, they have the strength and resources to maintain the strategic initiative," concludes the former military intelligence officer.
