Ukrainian forces miss vital window to fortify against Russian push

Recently, the frequency of attacks on Ukrainian positions along the entire front in Donbas has decreased by two-thirds. Near Pokrowsk, the main target of the Russian offensive, it has decreased by half. Just a week ago, the Russians attacked the defence lines there 50-60 times a day. Now the Ukrainian command has triumphantly announced that it has managed to stabilise the front line.

General Oleksandr Syrski stated in an interview with CNN that the operation in the Kursk region contributed to weakening the Russian offensive towards Pokrowsk. "It turns out that although the Russians did not move many units from the Pokrowsk area, apart from a single marine brigade, they are now unable to manoeuvre their reserves as they did before," added Syrski.

In truth, however, the stabilisation on the front that Gen. Syrski spoke of was far from complete. The Russians have captured about 4 square miles of terrain in Donbas. In the Kursk region, Ukrainians retreated to fortified positions and handed over about 15 square miles to the Russians. Basically, everyone was waiting for the Russians to make a move.

The Russians had to transfer almost 10,000 soldiers from Donbas to the Kursk region. This forced their command to take a temporary operational pause on the main attack direction, at least until the arrival of new infantrymen. The Russians have almost an endless number of these.

Russian experts and propagandists emphasised that the slowdown in operations was solely due to the temporary lack of soldiers and the need to pull up reserves. They said that once these arrived, the intensity of the fighting would rise again, especially since President Vladimir Putin still treats Donbas as a priority.

- Perhaps we will gather all reserves. In the rear, we have 5 million security forces who know how to handle weapons. If half of them are sent to the front, we will trample everything there, even if they are only given shovels. Russia's reserves are so large that radical changes in the situation will simply be delayed, - said military journalist Dmitry Kornev on RTVI television.

That is exactly what happened. It was expected that the Russians would need up to two weeks of calm to pull up their reserves. On 13 September, I wrote that reserves "could appear on the front within the next two weeks" and Ukrainians should do everything to strengthen their position before the anticipated negotiations and the arrival of Russian reserves. Unfortunately for Kyiv, nothing was done to use this time.

In early September, reports emerged that four reserve brigades had been moved to Donbas to strike south of Pokrowsk. It is still unknown whether this actually happened. So far, there has been no evidence that fresh units have entered the fight, and it was precisely south of Pokrowsk that the Russians struck and threw back the Ukrainian defence, leading to the partial encirclement of Vuhledar.

The city was defended by soldiers of the 72nd Independent Mechanised Brigade, who had been occupying the sector for over two years and effectively defending it. Unfortunately, the brigade did not see significant rotation or extended rest during this time. This is the biggest problem of the Ukrainian army and an issue that has been recurring since the end of the first year of the war. The Russians do not have this problem.

Soon, the autumn draft, which conscripted over 140,000 draftees, will complete their one-year mandatory military service. For several weeks, Russian social media have been repeating information that with the end of their service, conscripts will be "offered" contracts so that they can be sent to the front.

The problem that Ukrainians have faced from the start of the war is the constant influx of new Russian soldiers. For every killed soldier, another quickly appears. Not as well-trained and equipped, perhaps? Since the battle of Bakhmut, the Russians have been employing the tactic of "meat assaults," hoping that continuous strikes will tire the defenders and deplete their combat supplies. It worked then. They repeated this scenario near Avdiivka. And now they are doing the same near Pokrowsk.

Even if the Kremlin were to send all autumn conscripts, it would not help much. The daily Russian personnel losses exceed 1,200 soldiers. In the last quarter alone, according to the British Ministry of Defence, the Kremlin lost about 35,000 soldiers each month.

Therefore, the Russians are already reaching for deep reserves, and recruitment commissions are operating not only in penal colonies but also in homeless shelters. The numerical results are visible. In just the first half of this year, 166,200 people signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence. Last year, 490,000 Russians signed contracts. This record will surely be broken this year.

In addition, many volunteers are still coming forward. Mostly young people from the poorest republics, for whom service in the army is a chance to escape poverty. Russian officials claim that around 190,000 people volunteered to fight in Ukraine this year.

With each passing month, however, the quality of conscripts is declining. The Russian government is reluctant to admit it, but due to alcoholism, poor diet, and limited access to healthcare, the average life expectancy for men in the Russian Federation is just over 58 years.