Ukrainian draft evaders risk perilous crossings into Poland
The border guard is avoiding addressing the question regarding the motivations of Ukrainians who, according to the latest data, are attempting to enter Poland illegally. This occurs even across the green border and with false documents. Experts suggest these could be individuals fleeing conscription or deserters.
In 2023, this phenomenon was almost non-existent. However, in a report for 2024, the Polish border guard indicates that several hundred Ukrainians were detained while attempting to illegally cross the border into Poland. It is worth remembering that travel between Poland and Ukraine is visa-free. In 2024, approximately 8.5 million people crossed the border from Ukraine into Poland, and a similar number crossed in the other direction.
According to the latest SG report, 13,600 Ukrainian citizens were denied entry. The statistics did not provide specific reasons for the refusals.
In the Polish-Ukrainian section, over the last year, more than 640 Ukrainian citizens were detained for illegally crossing the national border—the majority – 470 at border crossings and nearly 180 outside crossings. Most used false or fraudulently obtained documents, reported WP by Lt. Col. of the SG Andrzej Juźwiak, spokesperson for the Chief of the Border Guard.
In 2023, 176 Ukrainian citizens attempted to illegally enter Poland.
Who are the desperate individuals trying to escape from Ukraine illegally? The SG spokesperson did not directly address the question about the foreigners' motivations. We asked if Ukrainians risking the green border crossing could be individuals escaping conscription.
Each case is considered individually, and officers take appropriate actions based on the incident, replied Lt. Col. Juźwiak.
Crisis in Ukraine's army. "They flee because there is no other option"
According to Prof. Daniel Boćkowski, a security expert at the University of Białystok, Ukrainians choosing illegal ways to leave the country are likely men avoiding conscription. Ukrainian authorities have prohibited conscription-aged men, aged 25-60, from leaving the country.
The expert comments that the chance of these men leaving Ukrainian territory normally is almost zero, hence their choice of an illegal route.
Ukraine lacks infantry, and allies strongly emphasise the missing reserve personnel in the army. Western countries are pressuring Ukraine to reduce the conscription age. Ukrainian authorities are tightening control policies, practically conducting round-ups for men on the streets, describes the interlocutor. They flee because there is no other option, he emphasises.
Prof. Boćkowski points out that the Russian army is progressing on the frontline in eastern Ukraine. Even if Russians suffer a five-to-one loss ratio, from the perspective of the Ukrainian soldier, no one wants to be in trenches in that group which sacrifices themselves repelling attacks. The phenomenon of escapes to Poland, including deserters, will intensify. In Ukraine, criticism and dissatisfaction with frontline command are growing, summarises Prof. Boćkowski.
We recently reported that President Donald Trump's National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, suggested that the lower age limit for conscription should be 18. According to him, this decision could help stabilise the frontline situation, as Ukraine struggles with significant personnel shortages.
Ukraine has Western weapons, equipment, and ammunition, but the problem becomes the declining number of people willing to fight for the country, warns Ukrainian experts. That's the crux of the crisis, a social problem, and changing commanding generals on the frontline will not alter it, assessed Yevhen Dyky, a war veteran with Russia.
Who is fleeing Ukraine?
From the beginning of the war until the autumn of 2023, nearly 20,000 men fled Ukraine to avoid conscription, and another 21,000 tried but were detained by border services, according to findings by the BBC and the Ukrainian portal TSN. The most popular escape routes were through Romania, Moldova, and Slovakia, with Poland being a later choice. Ukrainian politicians commented that 95% of citizens are ready to defend the country against Russian aggression, meaning escapes are not crucial for defence.
14,300 Ukrainians tried to cross the border on foot or by swimming, while the remaining 6,800 relied on documents obtained fraudulently, including fake exemptions from conscription, such as fabricated illnesses, officials confirmed.
The country's authorities announced a crackdown on corruption in military qualification commissions, which led to a tenfold increase in conscription exemptions. Those caught trying to escape face fines and up to eight years in prison. It is unknown whether military refugees will be penalised if they return in the future.
