Ukraine's strategic gamble: Balancing Kursk's success and Donbas peril

- "The Kursk operation" is a success, but it has not significantly affected the situation in the Pokrovsk direction - commented in a video recording for the RBK Ukraine agency Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of the famous Ukrainian unit of the 3rd Assault Brigade (stationed in Donbas).

- I suspect it was planned this way so the Russians would transfer their forces from here. However, they almost didn't move them from here. They have sufficient reserves here, both in our direction and in the direction of Pokrovsk - emphasises the military officer. He also assesses that "the situation in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions remains extremely critical".

It is a mystery why the Ukrainian forces retreated without putting up absolute resistance and not engaging new units in the fight. They are only slowing down the Russians, as if they have given up and accepted the loss of the territory, commented former Commander of the Land Forces in Poland Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak.

- A possible explanation is engaging reserves and large forces in another action, which we know nothing about. He adds that it may be the southern front, but it would still be a big gamble.

Ukrainian media warn that despite the Armed Forces of Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region in Russia, the Russian troops present in Donbas have accelerated their offensive in eastern Ukraine, aiming to capture the city of Pokrovsk. In this region, the battles are among the bloodiest. The Russians repeat infantry attacks and do not care about the losses of so-called meat assaults. Their aviation drops heavy FAB bombs on the defenders.

The attackers have approached the city from 10 to 15 kilometres from the outskirts of Pokrovsk. Local authorities are calling for an immediate evacuation. Every day, 500 to 600 residents leave. Shortly, the evacuation will include children.

This is already the second evacuation of the population - counting from 2022, the beginning of the Russian aggression in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian analysts, the fighting for the city will begin in September.

Pokrovsk still lives. We helped evacuate city residents and those who left other settlements in the Donetsk region. The city has water, electricity, and gas. Financial institutions operate, but businesses have started to leave, said Sergij Dobryjak from the city's military administration in a statement.

Gen. Skrzypczak alarms that, from his assessment, the collapse of the Ukrainian defence under Pokrovsk threatens disaster, the Russians reaching further cities and even the Dnieper River, which would mean cutting off one-third of Ukraine.

Putin is pursuing the goal of capturing the entire Donetsk region and then basing troops on the defensive line on natural barriers, including rivers. This achievement cannot be compared or balanced with the success of the Kursk operation. There, they captured only a piece of Russia, a small town, and some villages. Donbas is a game for the east of Ukraine with its industrial centre, emphasises Gen. Skrzypczak further.

In this way, the former Commander of the Land Forces in Poland refers to the comments made in the Ukrainian media that "Ukraine is trying to find a balance between capturing territory in the Kursk region and losing it in the centre of the eastern front in Donbas." Like the aforementioned Maksym Zhorin, Ukrainian commanders argue that the war is not about territories but about destroying the Russian invaders. "When the enemy is dead, the lands will be recovered" - the Ukrainian military officer emphasised.

Retired Brigadier General of the Polish Army and former head of the BBN Stanisław Koziej assesses that the results achieved in the "Kursk operation" may be greater than the potential risks of losses elsewhere, for example, in Donbas.

- Ukrainians do not have enough forces to be equally strong on the entire front. He notes that if they decided to conduct an offensive operation in the Kursk direction, they naturally had to give up part of the forces that could be used in other directions.

- This operation was undertaken with full awareness of the risks in other directions, but simultaneously with the calculation that it is a worthwhile risk - he claims.

Gen. Koziej also assesses that there is no risk of a total collapse of the eastern front because, according to him, the Russians do not have enough forces to launch a decisive offensive there. This is especially true since, as he emphasises, Russia will eventually have to take at least some forces from Donbas to start reclaiming lost territories in the Kursk region.

- If the Russians wanted to continue the Donbas offensive, the Kursk region would probably have to remain under occupation for many months, and that could mean the end of Vladimir Putin in Russia - claims Gen. Koziej. - The situation greatly weakens Putin's position not only in Russia itself but also on the international stage - he adds, predicting that the occupation of the Kursk region may prompt the West to strengthen military aid to Ukraine.

The Ukrainians concluded that by attacking in an unexpected direction, they would achieve effects both operational and political-strategic, and they succeeded. Perhaps, as Gen. Koziej stated, they will pay for these important successes with losses in Donbas.

According to a military analysis cited by the Unian agency, the Ukrainian units in Pokrovsk lack manpower, complicating defensive operations and practically making counterattacks impossible.

"The proximity of cities to the front line and the range of Russian artillery create a significant threat, as the collapse could lead to Russia's encirclement of Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk. Despite the surprise of the Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region and the resulting significant political benefits, it is hard to paint a rosy picture in Ukraine itself" - falls in the analysis.