Ukraine's refinery attacks hint at vulnerability in Russia's oil sector

Ukrainian shelling of refineries in Russia could have disrupted about 15 percent of the production capacity of these plants, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing a NATO representative asking to remain anonymous. He added that Russia is starting to run out of ammunition.

The NATO representative said that the shelling likely disrupted over 10, maybe over 15 percent, of the production capacity of Russian refineries. Depending on the extent of the damage, repairs could take a considerable amount of time.

He noted that "increasingly fewer such (types of) energy infrastructure and critical facilities in Russia remain safe." As Reuters adds, Russian officials assured that the refineries damaged in the attacks will resume normal operation by the first days of June.

The NATO representative also stated that Russia, in the face of heavy losses in Ukraine, is recruiting about 30,000 people each month. It still has a significant advantage over attacking Ukraine in terms of ammunition, people, and equipment. Nonetheless, a significant breakthrough on the front is unlikely to be achieved in the short term.

He believes no significant offensive operation is possible without another large-scale mobilization. He added that Russia also lacks ammunition.

In March, the Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) and Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) confirmed that they had carried out strikes on refineries in, among others, Sloviansk in the Krasnodar Territory, Novoshakhtinsk in the Rostov region, Ryazan, Kstovo in the Nizhny Novgorod region, and Kirishi in the Leningrad region.

Media from Russia and Ukraine also reported on air raids on refineries in Syzran and Novokuibyshevsk in the Samara region, as well as a fire near a thermal power plant in Petersburg.

Recently, Thomas O'Donnell, an energy expert from the American think tank Wilson Center, assessed that "the recent Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries in Russia have shown that Ukraine is capable of threatening Russian oil exports through ports in Primorsk and Novorossiysk".

O'Donnell recalled reports by the British newspaper "Financial Times" that the United States had repeatedly called on Ukraine to stop drone attacks on Russian refineries.

- The reasons given include American concerns that Russia might retaliate against Western energy infrastructure and the potential rise in petrol prices - something every president wants to avoid in an election year - explained the analyst.

According to him, these "official" concerns are however largely unfounded.

- First of all, the USA has always supported Ukraine's right to attack targets in Russia, provided that Kyiv does not use American weapons for this. This condition can be checked off: the drones do not originate from the USA. Of course, Putin could retaliate against NATO energy facilities, but this would, however, involve a huge risk for Moscow - assessed O'Donnell.

What about the prices of oil and refined products? Ukraine hits oil refineries, not export infrastructure. Striking refineries reduces the production of diesel fuel, petrol, and aviation fuel for the Russian war economy and its armed forces in Ukraine. If Russia cannot refine this oil - which it does not export anyway - it might stop producing this raw material, but it would not reduce exports, nor cause a rise in prices - he emphasized.

- So what is Washington worried about? Well, the recent attacks have shown that Ukraine has the capabilities to also hit the ports through which Russian oil is exported and disrupt, perhaps half of all Russian exports of this raw material. This would be a turn that really concerns Washington - noted.