Ukraine's £12 trillion resource pact: A shift in global power

President Donald Trump announced that he anticipates a visit from Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Friday. During this visit, an agreement on the extraction of rare earth metals in Ukraine is expected to be signed.

As noted by the country's Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, the final version of the agreement is to be approved by the Ukrainian government on Wednesday. The Prime Minister explained that the agreement outlines the creation of a special investment fund between the United States and Ukraine, to which Ukraine would contribute 50% of the revenues from the "future monetisation" of state mineral resources, including oil and gas, and related logistics.

According to a Polish Geological Institute expert, Ukraine currently hosts some of the largest reserves of critical raw materials in Europe, which are vital for the development of space, defence, and energy technologies. The country is among the top ten holders of documented titanium deposits and, in terms of lithium, Ukraine holds one-third of Europe’s resources. Additionally, Ukraine possesses significant quantities of tantalum, niobium, beryllium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite. The estimated value of all valuable resources (not just rare earths) amounts to £12 trillion.

- The utilisation of these resources by humanity signifies a significant leap in civilisational development, comparable to the transition from the Stone Age to the Iron Age - said Andrzej Jagielski. He added that countries with access to these resources will develop more rapidly and decide where these valuable minerals will be distributed. He explained that this implies the pace of development in different global regions will depend on them.

When asked about the properties of critical resources, Jagielski cited neodymium as an example, a small amount of which can alter the properties of metal alloys. - For instance, neodymium magnet discs are virtually unbreakable, whereas those without neodymium can easily be separated, even by a child, he explained.

Currently, - as he noted - 68% of the world's rare earth metals market is controlled by China, which includes the largest rare earth metals mine in Bayan Obo, Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, in recent years, with governmental support, Chinese companies have secured valuable deposits in Africa. Significant portions of lithium, cobalt, titanium, and other resources essential for producing batteries, wind turbines, medical devices, smartphones, computer disks, lasers, or electric and hybrid vehicles originate from there.

The specificity of Ukrainian critical resource deposits - as Jagielski explains - is that they are situated in Europe, under favourable geological conditions (just beneath or on the surface, also in the form of placers), and are largely untapped. Some were discovered during the Soviet Union era, but extractions did not commence due to the high operational costs in crystalline rocks.

- However, today, extraction technologies have advanced, and resource prices are currently so high that these deposits appear as a great treasure - explained the geologist. These resources are located in Ukraine's central zone, stretching from the northwest to the Sea of Azov.

The expert, however, noted that 70% of the valuable deposits are located in areas occupied by Russia. - There is also an area along the Belarusian border by the Pripyat River, which raises concerns about the movement of Belarusian troops that might attempt to seize these deposits, he assessed.

In his view, allowing the United States to access Ukrainian rare resource deposits could enable the USA to take leadership from China in this market segment and enhance their global economic standing.

Rare earth metals, also known as rare earth elements, are a group of 17 chemical elements including: scandium, yttrium, lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, and lutetium.