Ukraine's drone strikes cast doubt on Russian bomber future
The recent attack by Ukrainian drones on the Kazan Aircraft Production Association named after S. P. Gorbunov (KAPO), where the strategic bombers Tu-160M and Tu-22M3 are produced, has raised many questions about the future capabilities of the Russian defence industry to repair and upgrade aircraft. Łukasz Pacholski, an expert from the magazine "Lotnictwo Aviation International," in a conversation with WP Tech, reminded us that such problems are not new for Russia.
Ukrainian aviation expert Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, emphasised that the aircraft plants located in Kazan serve as a base for modernising and repairing Tu-160M and Tu-22M3 bombers—the recent attack by Ukrainian drones aimed to reduce Russia's production capabilities. Experts had already noted the slow pace of producing new machines for Russia's strategic aviation.
As Defence Romania recalls, analysts from the Ukrainian service Defence Express have even claimed that Russia cannot build entirely new Tu-160M and Tu-22M3 bombers from scratch. The lack of access to new parts forces reliance on parts from Soviet-era aircraft still in warehouses.
Russian strategic aviation under scrutiny
Łukasz Pacholski, an expert from the magazine Lotnictwo Aviation International, noted in a conversation with WP Tech that "attacks on aircraft factories themselves are not a big problem for the Russians." According to him, this is due to a few simple reasons. The production of advanced combat aircraft like the Tu-160, the modernisation of the Tu-22, and the production of multirole aircraft such as the Su-34 is limited to single units.
- This production was never developed on a large scale. We're talking about a few bomber units per year plus a few dozen multirole aircraft, so such strikes primarily have a purely prestigious dimension. They are meant to show Russians that Ukraine is capable of attacking strategic and economic targets - the expert explained.
- Let's remember that since the collapse of the Soviet Union, this part of Russian aviation has been perpetually underfunded. It was a part that always lacked equipment, especially modern ones like the Tu-160 bombers. The Russians maintained the potential of strategic aviation, among other things because, during the Cold War, they produced a significant number of older-generation bombers like the Tu-22 and Tu-95. Additionally, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they "recovered" some bombers from Ukraine, which handed them over to Russia as part of various settlements - added Łukasz Pacholski.
According to the expert, few Russian aircraft are modern from a Western perspective. - Let's look at examples like Lockheed Martin, who delivered over 1,000 F-35 aircraft over 20 years, and hundreds more are in production. The French delivered over 200 Rafale aircraft, the Eurofighter consortium delivered over 600 Typhoons, and during this time, when we look at Russian equipment deliveries, the numbers are much smaller - as explained. This is why the Russian aviation industry (unlike, for example, the Russian tank industry) has been inefficient for decades in terms of production capabilities known from the West.
He concluded that, in addition to the embargo on the supply of parts and components, the Russians are currently having problems with the production and certification of Russian substitutes, which means that in some cases, they face a problem they cannot overcome.
Russia's strategic bombers
It's worth recalling that Russian strategic aviation primarily relies on three types of bombers: Tu-160, Tu-95MS, and Tu-22M3, which constitute the core of Russia's nuclear triad and can carry both conventional weapons and nuclear warheads.
The Tu-160, known as the "White Swan, " is the most modern and advanced aircraft in Russian strategic aviation. It's a supersonic bomber with variable-sweep wings that can operate over vast distances without the need for aerial refuelling. Thanks to modernisations, including the Tu-160M version, these aircraft have received new avionics, upgraded engines, and the capability to carry hypersonic cruise missiles.
Another pillar of Russian strategic aviation is the Tu-95MS—a legendary turboprop-powered bomber that has been in service since the Cold War. Its distinctive sound from the NK-12 engines and unique silhouette make it easily recognisable. Although the design dates back to the 1950s, thanks to modernisations like integration with modern Ch-101 and Ch-102 cruise missiles, it remains a formidable tool in Russia's deterrence strategy.
The Tu-22M3 plays a somewhat different role as a long-range bomber primarily intended for attacks on land and sea targets. Although it is not formally classified as a strategic bomber, it is intensively used in combat operations, as demonstrated in the Syrian conflict. It can carry various armaments, including Ch-32 missiles, which pose a threat to NATO carrier strike groups.
