Ukraine’s covert operations: Moscow assassinations revealed

It should be recalled that on Monday, the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) released a statement identifying General Igor Kirillov as the individual responsible for authorising the use of chemical weapons against Ukrainian soldiers. Gen. Kirillov was the commander of the Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defence Forces of the Russian Armed Forces. He was said to be responsible for nearly 4,800 attacks.

By Tuesday, he had already died — after a bomb concealed in an electric scooter exploded. His aide, Major Ilya Polikarpov, also perished in the explosion. According to the Russians, the attack was carried out by a 29-year-old resident of Uzbekistan, who was arrested on Wednesday. According to Russian services (FSB), the attacker admitted he had been "recruited by Ukrainian special services."

Following the attack, Ukrainian sources confirmed in unofficial discussions with international agencies that they had killed a Russian general in Moscow. According to a source in Ukrainian services (quoted by the BBC), the general was a "legitimate target" due to his actions. The Ukrainian side claims he was a war criminal who personally ordered the use of chemical weapons.

The Kremlin and Russian propagandists primarily tried to portray Kirillov's assassination as an unprovoked act of terrorism, rather than a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, attempted to placate ultranationalist factions by claiming that the Russian military would retaliate against Ukraine's military-political leadership.

However, this is not the first instance in recent times where a high-ranking Russian military official has been killed in an attack. On 13 November in Sevastopol, Valery Trankovsky, the chief of staff of the 41st Missile Ship Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, was killed. His car exploded on a street in Sevastopol. This incident was caused by a bomb hidden under the driver's seat.

Another recent casualty is Sergey Yevsukov, the head of the Olenivka penal colony. In 2022, many Ukrainian prisoners, including numerous defenders of Mariupol and the Azovstal plant, were sent there. In December, it was revealed that Mikhail Shatsky, deputy head of the Experimental Mars Design Bureau and head of its software department, had also died. He was responsible for developing the control system of the new Kh-69 cruise missile, which has already been used in attacks in Ukraine.

- This indicates the professional and precise actions of Ukrainian services on Russian territory, right under Putin's nose. The SBU is conducting so-called targeted killings, which means "selective elimination." These are planned actions aimed at killing specific individuals, says retired Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj, a former Military Intelligence Service officer and an analyst specialising in security issues, to Wirtualna Polska.

As he further explains, aside from personnel operations, Ukrainian services also carry out intelligence activities targeting specific objectives such as ammunition and weapon storage or military airports.

- Ukraine has the capability to conduct such operations on Russian territory, and Russia has no effective means to prevent them. This is a challenging scenario for Russia. These actions reflect poorly on Putin's services. The Russian FSB is caught off guard, as they have not dealt with such activities before. It's one thing to intercept and prevent a terrorist group attack, and another to counter Ukrainian intelligence, which has the ability to penetrate Russian territory. These operations are delicate and precise, comments Korowaj.

According to Marcin Faliński, a former officer of the Intelligence Agency and author of books, Ukrainian services may find it easier to carry out such operations on Russian territory due to extensive networks of contacts and long-standing familial ties between the two societies.

- Despite the ongoing conflict, the connections between Russian and Ukrainian society remain strong. The killed officers had long careers in the Russian military. They might have had relationships with individuals originating from Ukraine, possibly involving family, schooling, or career episodes from the past. As a result, reaching them is easier for Ukrainian services than it would be in another country, claims Marcin Faliński.

In his view, if Kyiv is indeed behind this series of attacks, it's likely the work of two intelligence services: the SBU, Ukraine's internal service, and the HUR, Ukrainian military intelligence. - There are no such frictions between them as there are in the Kremlin among various services. Moreover, they share a common objective, which is the war and the duty of inflicting as many blows as possible on the adversary, says Faliński.

- On the other hand, the Russian FSB, which failed to monitor the actions of Ukrainian services within Russian territory, might not necessarily enjoy Putin's trust. It was the FSB that backed initiating the offensive, firmly believing they were adequately prepared for the invasion. They invested substantial resources and pressured the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, Gerasimov, to attack. Putin was livid afterwards, Faliński recalls.

According to retired Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj, an entire operational team of Ukrainian services prepares for attacks on Russian soil. - And it's not a one-day operation with just one hired person. The FSB overlooked this matter, which casts Russia in an unfavourable light. And this isn't the end of such actions; there will be more - predicts retired Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj.

And Marcin Faliński highlights yet another aspect.

We can never rule out disputes, actions by Russian services, or decisions by Putin himself. We've already witnessed the mysterious falls from windows involving businessmen, so it's conceivable that military figures could similarly provoke displeasure in the Kremlin. Russia is a complex matter, and blaming Ukraine remains an easy recourse, concludes Faliński.