"The situation on the front is complicated and deteriorating," said General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, in the latest report by American experts from the Institute for the Study of War, the issue of the potential timing of the Ukrainian army's counteroffensive is raised.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been ongoing for over two years—April 2024 is proving to be one of the most challenging months for the Ukrainian army.
The commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, mentioned that the operational and strategic situation on the front is "complicated and deteriorating." Experts warn that Russian forces have recently advanced in the Avdiivka area. It is there that the aggressor managed to capture the village of Ocheretyne.
Where will new Russian offensive start?
There is much speculation about a new Russian offensive that could start in the summer. Amid these growing concerns, researchers from the American think tank ISW outline the further progression of the war in a report published on 27 April.
ISW experts note that in the face of a lack of Western aid, Russians will gain an advantage in the coming weeks and will pose a significant threat to Ukraine, although—they believe—it is unlikely that they will penetrate the Ukrainian defense.
"Russian forces are likely to make significant tactical progress in the coming weeks, as Ukraine awaits the arrival of American aid at the front, but it is unlikely that they will penetrate the Ukrainian defense," reads the ISW report.
ISW indicates that thanks to good supplies, the Ukrainian forces will likely be able to prevent Russia's advancement during the expected summer offensive. Nevertheless, according to experts, Russian forces will use the current advantage to pose a serious threat to Ukraine this summer.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Russian military depots are currently stocked with weapons and ammunition.
Although the situation is challenging and dynamic, the report also mentions the term of the likely counteroffensive of the Ukrainian troops. This would take place after stabilizing the frontline after the summer offensive, which, according to experts' opinion, would happen only in winter.
"Ukraine is likely to stabilize the front line in the coming months and will be able to launch limited counter-offensive operations in late 2024 or early 2025," according to ISW experts.
