Ukraine's Avdiivka falls to Russia after a decade-long battle

With the onset of full-scale war, the Russians conducted five major operations against Avdiivka, including three in 2022. In each case, they failed to even reach the suburbs. Only the deployment of about 40,000 soldiers, supported by roughly 3,000 tanks and armoured vehicles, led to a breakthrough in the Ukrainian defence. And even then, it took the Russians more than four months.

The defense could have lasted even longer. Unfortunately, despite numerous warnings, the Ukrainian high command ignored the alarmist reports from the city's defenders. They had been reporting for weeks that the units were exhausted and the ammunition supplies were insufficient. This was especially true for artillery ammunition of systems received from the West, which are of a different caliber than those previously produced in Ukraine.

Ukrainians had problems with large-calibre shells essentially since the start of the war, but now the situation is critical. Ukrainian and allied factories are in no way able to meet the demand. Under Avdiivka, about 4,000-5,000 shells were fired daily.

The Command of the Operational Group Taurida, in whose area Avdiivka is located, spoke for several months about the need to rotate the units fighting in the city. However, it was only after the change of the supreme command that the reserve 3rd Assault Brigade, which fought near Bakhmut until the autumn, was transferred to Avdiivka.

The assault troops took positions around the coke and chemicals plant, from where one of the few roads to the city leads. The 3rd Brigade was tasked with securing this route so that the units fighting in the city could retreat along it.

The reserves arrived virtually at the last moment. The city's defenders were already fighting with their last strength. The record holder is the 110th Independent Mechanised Brigade from the Reserve Corps, which has been defending the city for over a year. Since October, the 31st and 47th Independent Mechanised Brigades have been fighting. Both formed in 2023 consist almost entirely of inexperienced conscripts.

The Ukrainian command did not decide to replace them with more rested units located on quieter sections of the front. The exhaustion of the soldiers caused the successive Russian attacks to make increasingly larger breaches, almost leading to encirclement.

The Russians repeatedly applied the tactic that proved successful for them in the last three months. They attacked in small groups, numbering 30-40 soldiers, with the support of infantry fighting vehicles. Almost every assault was preceded by artillery preparation that destroyed resistance points. The Russians bypassed the strongest positions, which had previously caused them problems.

They gathered as many as 40,000 soldiers around the city - more than twice as many as the Ukrainians had. For four months, the Russians repeated "meat grinder attacks," sending wave after wave of soldiers against fortified positions. Eventually, at the end of January, they managed to break through the line of fortifications on the south of the city and capture a settlement of detached houses. Russian propaganda speaks of a "spectacular victory" and a "brilliant operation".

However, the massive losses they have suffered are overlooked. On average, the Russians had 2,500-3,000 killed and wounded per week. Additionally, since the beginning of the offensive at Avdiivka, they lost at least 299 tanks and about 400 infantry fighting vehicles. These are losses that have been documented in photos and videos. The actual figures may be higher.

- Everywhere smells of death. In no-man's land, there are corpses with gutted viscera. Whenever there's a moment of calm, animals come out and nibble at some of them – said Sergei, a soldier of the 47th Independent Mechanised Brigade, at the end of January.

Ukrainian equipment losses are many times smaller, and in manpower, they are about three to four times less. Yet, they are very noticeable. Ukraine still struggles with a lack of conscripts. After the dismissal of Commander-in-Chief Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi and the appointment of his successor, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, a trusted man of President Zelensky, the topic of additional drafts has quieted down. Now it will have to return.

In early February, the American Institute for the Study of War reported that the Russians had assembled 17 regiments, 16 battalions, and two "regimental-battalion level" tactical units in the rear of the front. In total, this equals 60-62 thousand soldiers, most of whom have been mobilized in recent months.

One-third of them were grouped in the operational zone of the Southern Group of Forces, whose units are fighting at Avdiivka and Bakhmut. What caught the analysts' attention was the concentration of large forces in the Western Group of Forces, which is fighting in the Kharkiv region. Against them, the Ukrainians can only oppose exhausted units that have been lacking artillery ammunition for a month.

The situation of the Ukrainians is so difficult that without western aid deliveries they will be forced to shorten the front, and the Russians will gain the strategic initiative.