Ukraine's ageing patriots: A vital yet limited shield

Ukraine currently possesses six Patriot system batteries, which remain insufficient for its needs. However, each battery is extremely valuable as it can counteract the weapons that give the Russians an advantage on the front line.

Alongside a pair of SAMP/T batteries, the Patriot systems currently represent Ukraine's only defence against ballistic missiles and glide bombs with FAB guidance modules from UMPK.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has long exhausted its missiles for the S-300 systems. These Soviet-era systems remain useless without replenishing them, for instance, from Bulgaria or Greece or finding a workaround that allows the use of Patriot missiles.

The video below shows the rare sight of what is likely the launch of a PAC-2 missile, as these are the most numerous in Ukraine. Despite the low quality of the footage, it is evident that the missile has a fairly wide diameter relative to the launcher. This likely excludes the PAC-3 CRI missile, which has a smaller diameter and more control surfaces.

All Patriot system batteries in Ukraine, except the newest one from Romania, are versions from the late 1980s and early 1990s. Their main weaponry is the PAC‑2 GEM‑T missiles, a significant modernisation of older missiles.

This modernisation aimed to increase the effectiveness in countering targets, particularly ballistic missiles, while retaining the traditional fragmentation warhead. The changes included the installation of a modern rocket engine and an improved radar seeker, which now better detects low radar signature objects.

Nevertheless, the guidance method remained the same, meaning the system is still semi-active. Compared to the PAC-3 MSE/CRI missiles, which have an active radar seeker and are "fire and forget" solutions, this is a disadvantage.

Meanwhile, in the case of the PAC‑2 GEM‑T and older systems, the Patriot complex radar must continuously illuminate the target until impact. This procedure exposes the system to potential attacks by anti-radiation missiles and reduces its effectiveness against multiple targets approaching from various directions. It is worth noting that the Patriot radar has a sectoral design with a coverage field of 120 degrees, and the optimal option now is to use two radars per battery.

Nonetheless, the old Patriots are performing very well in Ukraine, even shooting down Russian hypersonic weapons and Russian aircraft in areas where they are deployed. It is possible that the Patriot shown in the footage was firing at an aircraft, as the range of the PAC-2 GEM-T missiles for such targets is reportedly up to about 160 kilometres.