Ukraine's missile ambitions: Challenges in targeting Russian airfields
Ukraine's access to long-range weapons like ATACMS and the planned transfer of JASSM missiles by the USA sparked speculation about the targets that could be destroyed with their help. High on the list are Russian airfields, but destroying them might be more challenging than it appears. Here's why.
Defense Portal, citing Ukrainian sources, attempted to assess how many ATACMS missiles would be needed to eliminate Russian airfields. Three air bases located within Russia were considered: Millerovo (about 150 kilometres from the front line), Buturlinovka (about 240 kilometres), and Morozovsk (about 270 kilometres).
Any potential attack on these bases can currently be regarded as purely hypothetical. This is because using long-range weapons to attack targets within Russia is currently impossible for political reasons. This is among the reasons why Ukraine is forced to develop its drones capable of hitting targets deep within Russia.
Destroying air bases with drones that carry relatively light warheads, however, is impossible. Drones can harass various objects, activate the enemy's air defence, or destroy aircraft on the tarmac, but drone attacks are incapable of permanently eliminating large airfields.
A hypothetical attack on Millerovo would require at least 13 ATACMS M39 Block I missiles. Due to the larger size of the entire base and the greater distance, an attack on Buturlinovka would require as many as 25 missiles.
To destroy the airfield in Morozovsk, a total of 37 ATACMS (MGM-140B Block IA, MGM-168 Block IVA, and Block IIA) missiles would be required. This is due to its size and distance, which necessitates using longer-range missiles with smaller warheads. Using such a high number of missiles to destroy just one air base is thus entirely unprofitable.
Weapons for destroying airfields
The data collected by the Ukrainians shows how difficult it is to destroy air bases, especially since the actual number of missiles fired would need to be greater—a portion could fall victim to Russian air defence or electronic warfare (EW).
Specialised weapons have been developed for this purpose (which Ukraine does not possess), such as the French BLU-107 Durandal bombs. After being dropped, the bomb descends by parachute, which ensures its proper alignment in the air. Just before hitting the target, a rocket booster is activated.
This causes the bomb to embed itself in the runway and detonate at a predetermined depth. The result is a crater about 5 metres deep and 200 square metres in area.
