Ukraine disrupts Russian Black Sea fleet dominance with sea drones and missiles

Military analyst Mariusz Cielma believes that the Ukrainian army has managed to significantly challenge the Russian Black Sea Fleet. He credits "sea drones" and British and French cruise missiles as pivotal in this achievement.

Cielma, chief editor of "New Military Technology," highlights that while it can't be outrightly stated that Ukraine dominates the Black Sea, they've definitely succeeded in disrupting Russian control. "The Ukrainians have effectively removed control from the Russians," he notes.

He recalls the stark contrast to the start of the Russian invasion when Russian vessels operated close to the Ukrainian coast, threatening a landing near Odesa. "The situation has changed dramatically," Cielma states, with the Russian fleet now on the defensive.

Cielma earmarks the conflict into three stages concerning Russian naval activities. Initially, the Russian fleet had the upper hand, freely navigating near Ukrainian shores. This changed with the sinking of the cruiser Moscow by Ukrainian forces in April 2022, and subsequent battles over Snake Island.

The past year marked a phase of diminished Russian activity, with their naval presence mainly confined near the Crimean Peninsula while somewhat maintaining a presence in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

The latest phase sees Ukraine deploying "kamikaze drones" and Western cruise missiles from Su-24 bombers, putting Russian vessels on high alert.

Cielma outlines "kamikaze drones" as boats several feet long, remotely controlled via Starlink satellite, fitted with cameras for day and night vision. These drones carry hundreds of kilograms of explosives for targeting maritime or port-based vessels.

Another critical asset is the Storm Shadow cruise missiles (SCALP-EG in the French version), essential for striking port-based ships and key infrastructures. Notably, these missiles targeted the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol last year.

"Ukrainians have managed to strip the Russians of their sea control," Cielma observes, drawing parallels between the current status of the Ukrainian fleet and the Polish fleet in World War II.

This strategic shift has ensured the operation of a grain corridor, a significant win for Ukraine, especially after Russia exited the UN and Turkey-brokered grain pact. "The Ukrainians essentially forged this corridor, repelling the Russians from this segment of the Black Sea," Cielma states.

He remarks on the limited Russian capability to blockade this route efficiently, suggesting that without naval presence, Russia might resort to more direct and aggressive tactics.

Following a shift in the main fleet base from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, Cielma views the new port as less equipped in terms of shipyards and operational security.

Highlighting a Russian strategic void, Cielma notes the near absence of Russian ships in the Black Sea or the Sea of Azov for weeks, bar occasional massive missile strikes on Ukraine. Yet, he acknowledges that Russia hasn't completely withdrawn, using aerial reconnaissance to monitor Ukrainian movements.

From the symbolic sinking of the cruiser Moscow, Ukraine has adeptly targeted various Russian naval units. Cielma recollects these efforts, from traditional missile attacks to engagements within zones Russia deemed secure, including frigates, corvettes, and patrol boats, with a significant focus on landing ships now repurposed for maritime logistics by Russia.

During the autumn-winter season, ship-launched missile attacks in the Black Sea were notably absent, Cielma concludes in an interview with the Polish Press Agency.