Ukraine braces for Russian push at Dnipropetrovsk border
We must prepare for Russian aggressors to enter the administrative borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, warned Col. Serhiy Hrabskiy, a reservist with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in Ukrainian media. Ukrainians find themselves in a difficult situation, trying to complete the construction of defensive lines to halt Russia's advances.
Ukrainian and Western military experts agree that the battle fought near Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine could lead to Russian entry into the Dnipropetrovsk region. The city of Pokrovsk serves as a logistical hub for Ukrainian defence. It connects to three main roads leading to the Dnipropetrovsk region and the city of Dnipro itself (the region's capital had a population of 980,000 before the war). Russian troops are located approximately 6 kilometres from the region's border.
"If Putin's soldiers cross this line, it would be the first attack on a new region of Ukraine since 2022 and would significantly impact Kyiv's war efforts. This region is crucial, housing military command, army support forces, volunteer groups, drone manufacturers, and more," says an analysis in the "Financial Times," citing its correspondent's reports.
Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak believes the Dnipropetrovsk region is one of the Kremlin's main targets. Already a year ago, he predicted that Russian plans for 2024 include reaching the line of the Dnipro River, which forms the natural border of eastern Ukraine. Russian territorial gains would then rely on this natural barrier.
- Russian forces use the tactic of attacking in small groups. They bypass cities, as observed around Pokrovsk, isolating defenders from supplies. Unfortunately, it's effective. The harsh autumn weather conditions were thought to halt action on the Russian front possibly. Unfortunately, that did not occur. The situation is expected to worsen in the winter. The Ukrainian army faces a severe crisis due to the lack of reserves and exhaustion from combat - said Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Land Forces, in conversation with WP.
The same issue in Ukrainian defence is highlighted by military analyst Rob Lee. "As long as this lack of forces continues to deepen, Ukraine takes on significant risks as its units may not be able to fill gaps on the front," he assessed in his latest analysis.
Ukraine races against time to build fortifications
Col. Serhiy Hrabskiy told Ukrainian media that the Dnipropetrovsk region is less densely built and industrialised than the Donetsk region, meaning the battles there will differ. - Open spaces allow for the mass use of drones. There is nowhere to hide. Moving soldiers involves a very high level of risk - Hrabskiy assessed.
The Ukrainian agency UNIAN quotes military expert Oleg Zhdanov, who stated that in the Dnipropetrovsk region, it is essential to construct a second and third line of fortifications and trenches. He also warned that Russians pose a threat to the region by advancing from Pokrovsk.
Media remind us that last year the Dnipropetrovsk region spent the equivalent of £6 million on building military installations. However, local journalists warned that the fortifications are incomplete, and in some construction sections, no workers or engineering troops were present.
The spokesman for Ukraine's eastern command, Nazar Voloshyn, said a few days ago that the Russians were pushed back from Pokrovsk, and intense fighting is ongoing near Kurakhove and Velika Novosilka. He reassured that according to the command's assessment, the Russian forces deployed in this region are not substantial enough to launch an offensive on Dnipropetrovsk.
Size of the Russian forces in the region
Recently, we reported that from September to the end of November, the Russians captured over 1,600 square kilometres in eastern Ukraine. Further gradual withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the battle in Donbas is inevitable, as the Russians hold at least a sixfold numerical advantage there. Yet, the cost of progress is enormous casualties. With an estimated rate of 1,500 casualties per day (killed and wounded), October was the deadliest month of the war for Russia, according to Russian independent media Verstka and The Insider.
Vladimir Putin wants to conclude several major battles, securing territorial gains before the expected negotiations begin and before the U.S. administration changes to Donald Trump. This is a typical Russian manoeuvre that may engage all available forces - commented Gen. Roman Polko, former commander of the GROM unit, in an interview with WP.
Ukrainian military correspondent Kostiantyn Mashovets stated that the Russian Eastern Force Group, operating in the directions of Velika Novosilka and Hulyaipole, comprises a maximum of 54,000 soldiers, 350 tanks, over 800 armoured fighting vehicles, slightly over 400 artillery systems, and about 100 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS).
