Trump's second term divides Kremlin and Russian billionaires
The Kremlin warmly received Donald Trump's election as the 47th President of the USA, especially concerning the potential end to the war in Ukraine. Oligarchs interviewed by Bloomberg do not share Moscow's optimism but are hesitant to criticise the state authorities publicly.
Since the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, Russia has had to contend with sanctions that—contrary to official Russian propaganda—have impacted the country's economy. This is evident, for instance, in the central bank's increased interest rates to curb inflation, which is often understated in communications. Nevertheless, the effects of rising prices, such as those for butter, are making their way onto social media.
However, sanctions are a double-edged sword, and Western economies, which have opted to cut off the cheapest available Russian energy resources as quickly as possible, have also suffered. The rise in inflation in the USA, among other places, was one of the issues in Donald Trump's campaign, who expressed a preference for high tariffs rather than restrictions.
The election of the Republican as the 47th President of the USA was warmly welcomed by the Kremlin. Positive signals from Trump about ending the war in Ukraine were mentioned, among others, by the press secretary of Russian leader Vladimir Putin. However, what actions the Republican will take during his second term in the White House remains speculative.
The Kremlin's optimism does not seem to be shared by the oligarchs. Bloomberg queried Russian billionaires about their expectations on whether sanctions might be eased after Donald Trump takes office. They responded, under conditions of anonymity, that they do not anticipate the restrictions being eased, even in the event of a truce in Ukraine.
Billionaires see things differently to Russian propaganda
The agency also asked billionaires their opinion on the government's September forecasts, which predicted economic growth over the next six years gradually rising from 2.5 per cent in 2025 to over 3 per cent during the period 2028-2030. They also believe that the Kremlin's optimism in this respect is unwarranted.
According to Bloomberg's interviewees - who, it should be noted, face higher tax burdens due to the state's "defence" expenditures - Moscow should acknowledge that there is a "war" in Ukraine, not a "special military operation", thereby facilitating society's understanding of the origins of such high inflation.
Acknowledging the war is also discussed in the context of raised interest rates. According to billionaires, it is currently more advantageous for them to halt the development and investments of businesses, which finance wartime efforts and should be receiving support from the state.
