Trump's historic conviction: Impacts on the 2024 US election campaign

Joe Biden and Donald Trump target the same narrow electorate of undecided voters. CNBC writes that the former US president's conviction could matter to them. However, Thursday's poll on this topic is quite surprising.

On Thursday, a grand jury in Manhattan's state court, New York, found Trump guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records. The case is related to Trump and his associates hiding payments for the silence of porn actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election campaign.

This is the first such verdict in U.S. history. On 11 July, the court will decide on the sentence, determining the punishment the former U.S. president will face.

What consequences could this have for the U.S. elections on 5 November?

Donald Trump is now the first former American president ever to be convicted in a criminal trial — but it's far from clear whether that black mark will sink, or even weigh down, his bid to unseat President Joe Biden. Recent polls suggest that the guilty verdict could affect how key voting blocs view Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee," points out the American station CNBC.

However, according to a poll released on Thursday morning, even before the jury's decision was known, a small portion of non-Democratic voters stated that they would not be inclined to vote for Trump after this verdict.

But any change may not be enough to change the trajectory of the presidential race - the station comments.

It refers to an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll published on Thursday morning, conducted with registered independent voters.

• Nearly three-quarters of independent voters stated that Trump's conviction would not affect their voting decision.
• Only 11% of respondents indicated that after the conviction, they would be less likely to support Trump in the November elections.
• And 15% stated that the conviction would make them more likely to support him.

Meanwhile, among Republicans, 25% said they would be more inclined to vote for Trump if he is found guilty in the Stormy Daniels case. And only 10% admitted that they would be less inclined to vote for the former president.

These responses reflect the results of a recent Quinnipiac University poll, in which only 6% of Trump voters stated they would be less likely to vote for him if he were convicted. At the same time, nearly a quarter said they would be more likely to vote for him.

Americanist Professor Zbigniew Lewicki, asked by the Polish Press Agency what Trump's guilty verdict means for American politics, assessed that "it portends serious troubles and real problems" because he will be a candidate of a major party in the presidential elections.

All kinds of cases against him, of which there are several, are perceived by his supporters as manoeuvres by the establishment aimed at hindering his candidacy. This will heighten tensions. It could lead to various forms of violence, making the events of January 2021 look minor in comparison - Professor Lewicki believes.

Asked whether being found guilty could paradoxically benefit Trump, he replied affirmatively. In his view, "this will further deepen the siege mentality, and his supporters will be even more convinced that something is wrong here."

The Americanist assessed that some undecided voters would decide not to vote for Trump because "they do not want to vote for a criminal." Still, it would convince others and more strongly mobilise his voters to support him.

- One can argue that this is a triumph of the American justice system and democracy. But it's equally valid to say that it is an aberration of democracy and the justice system. This is not a primary offence; we are talking about a bookkeeping violation, and on this basis, a serious presidential candidate is to be eliminated. That's very dubious - he said.

Professor Lewicki also believes that if Trump wins the autumn elections in the U.S., he may seek revenge on people who "have been persecuting him for a long time because this anti-Trump campaign has been ongoing for years." He added that the world now needs an America that will protect it from the "threat from the East," not one torn apart internally and riddled with conflict. - He added that this is not the moment when Trump's opponents can be opening champagne with joy.