Trump seeks pivotal talks with Putin amid Ukraine crisis

Addressing participants at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Donald Trump highlighted his hopes for a meeting with Putin soon, aiming to halt the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

- I truly wish to meet President Putin soon to end this war, not for economic reasons, but because lives are being squandered. The terrain is very flat, and the only thing stopping the missiles are human bodies. I'm not focused on the economy or natural resources. Too many young people are perishing in this conflict - said Trump.

Meanwhile, increasingly worrisome news is emerging from the front lines for Kyiv. Russian forces are intensifying their siege of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk region. The town is seen as a key bastion and logistical hub in the southern Donetsk area. The situation there is "close to critical".

Additional towns to the west and south of nearby Pokrovsk have fallen under the control of the invading army.

According to forecasts by Ukrainian soldiers and analysts, if Velyka Novosilka is captured, Russian forces will have a clear path for further offensives northwards in the Donetsk region towards Pokrovsk and westward towards the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

But that is not the only issue. As "Ukrayinska Pravda" has disclosed, the army is plunged into crisis: "A lack of infantry, dysfunctional command structures, false reports, desertions, and corruption."

- Ukraine, as a nation, lacks the capacity to regain the upper hand this year. It cannot build such reserves or restore the capabilities it had during the greatest lost opportunity - the failed June offensive. This is partially the West's fault due to the inadequate speed and quality of deliveries preventing the Ukrainian army from regaining that capability. It is also partly the fault of the Ukrainians themselves, who did not fully exploit what they had - says retired Colonel Piotr Lewandowski to Wirtualna Polska, an instructor at the Territorial Defence Training Centre and participant in numerous military missions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

He notes that existing issues in Kyiv have returned with intensified force.

- It's the shortage of well-trained personnel. Those trained over 10 years ago during the Donbas operation were either too few or have died in battle. There was an opportunity to establish a training system enabling the army to expand to one million personnel. Attempts were made, but they did not result in achieving combat readiness. This was compounded by persistent corruption within the military - recounts Lewandowski.

Professor Maciej Milczanowski, a political scientist and security expert, and deputy director of the Institute of Political Sciences at the University of Rzeszów, shares a similar view. - In the Ukrainian army, the deficiency of quality personnel is evident. The higher one goes up the chain of command, the worse it gets. Brigade or division commanders must possess extensive experience. How can Ukraine hope to fight in a Western manner if it lacks the commanders to achieve this? - posits Prof. Milczanowski.

He recalls that commanders trained in the West and by Americans after the 2014 conflict in Donbas are dying in battle. - They are being replaced by commanders from the Soviet era, who have entirely different approaches to military operations. There is also war fatigue and frustration with the corruption at the highest levels of the army. Ordinary soldiers, when exposed to such information, lose the incentive to fight for Ukraine. Often, they also do not receive salaries and sustain extended frontline deployments without rotation, battling in mud or trenches for months - assesses Prof. Milczanowski.

According to retired Colonel Piotr Lewandowski, the Ukrainian army's challenges are further compounded by the effective strategies of the Russians. - The Russian military is more adept at mobilisation and has imposed its method of warfare. Ukraine is being forced to adapt to Russian-style warfare. The Russians maintain the initiative on the battlefield and will likely continue doing so. Their military command is more effective. Russia's dictatorship appears functional in military leadership, whereas Ukraine's young democracy faces hurdles in managing its armed forces - assesses retired Colonel Lewandowski.

The former military officer, taking a holistic view of the conflict, reiterates that the Russians are far from accomplishing their initial goals. - They haven’t compelled the Kyiv government to step down, nor captured the Ukrainian capital, nor demilitarised it. However, they are inching closer to partial goals of annexing four regions. Nonetheless, they face difficulties there too - the expert stresses.

He calculates that in the Kherson region, they remain on the opposite bank of the Dnieper River, and their chances of a successful offensive across the river are negligible. - In the Zaporizhzhia region, they are limiting themselves to positional warfare because they lack the resources for multipronged operations. They have concentrated their forces in the Donbas region. They have almost entirely taken over the Luhansk region. Meanwhile, capturing the Donetsk region at the current rate would take about a year. Progress there is consistent but slow and costly - claims retired Colonel Piotr Lewandowski.

According to both interlocutors of Wirtualna Polska, attempts to end the war by Donald Trump will largely depend on Putin's approach, but also on geopolitical and economic pressures on Russia.

- I agree with Trump's assertion that this war must be halted. The Ukrainian public is increasingly recognising that it may need to accept the loss of some territory and a diplomatic defeat. The key is determining how to force Russia to negotiate when they hold the advantage on the battlefield and Ukraine stands little chance of regaining military dominance. According to Trump's proposals, it is likely we will see more economic pressure on Russia rather than an increase in military support. His plan appears sensible - says Lewandowski.

Meanwhile, Prof. Maciej Milczanowski observes that the Russians are desperately committing all resources to the battlefield because they anticipate negotiating from a position of strength.

- It remains unclear in which direction Trump believes negotiations should proceed: whether on equitable terms or conducted swiftly and effectively. The difficulty might lie in the Gulf states not complying - especially concerning oil - with the United States' wishes as the American leader might prefer. Constructing an "oil lever" against Russia will be challenging, particularly since it will not immediately have severe consequences - evaluates Prof. Milczanowski.

In his perspective, the escalating geopolitical challenges facing Russia create an opportunity to resolve the war. - The Kremlin is losing influence in the Middle East and South America. Putin realises his waning influence in Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Syria. Political allegiance in these regions is shifting away from Moscow and towards China, Turkey, or the United States in Africa. These are significant geostrategic setbacks for Russia. Trump acknowledges this and aims to leverage it in negotiations - concludes the security expert.

Sylwester Ruszkiewicz