Trump overtakes Biden in key states, challenging 2020 coalition
A new poll indicates Donald Trump is leading in five of the six key states where Biden won in 2020. It reveals which electorate the currently serving president is losing the most support from.
14 May 2024 10:33
According to the Sienna College and "New York Times" survey, Trump has a significant lead over Biden in Nevada (50-38%) and Georgia (49-39%). In Arizona and Michigan, Trump is ahead by seven percentage points (49-42%), and in Pennsylvania by three percentage points (47-44%). Wisconsin is the only "swing" state where Biden is in the lead, albeit by a narrow 2 percentage point margin (47-45%).
The survey also features independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., expected to secure around 10% of the votes. However, his inclusion does not significantly alter the outcomes, as he draws votes from both Trump and Biden to a similar extent.
Joe Biden’s weaker results. "NYT" on the reasons
The "New York Times" points out that Biden’s weaker performance in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada stems from a drop in support among voter groups that played a crucial role in his victory in these states in 2020. This includes the youngest voters (18-29), Latinos, and African Americans. Support for both candidates is roughly equal in the first two groups, whereas four years ago, these voters significantly preferred Biden. Among Black voters, Trump’s support stands at 20%, the highest result for a Republican candidate since the 1960s.
Biden is also losing ground among more centrist voters. Additionally, 13% of voters who declared they voted for Biden in 2020 now indicate they will not do so again, mainly due to the administration's policies on the war in the Gaza Strip.
Voters voice their opinion in the survey. They want a "system change"
The newspaper highlights that young voters and minority groups are particularly dissatisfied with the economic situation and are in favour of more drastic changes, something Trump is more likely to deliver. A desire for "system change" is something a decisive majority of voters share. 55% of voters seek significant changes, 27% favour minor adjustments, and 14% advocate for a complete system overhaul.
Nevertheless, Biden might still have reasons for optimism due to potentially higher voter turnout. Among likely voters, he performs better than among all registered voters. Considering this group, Biden still leads in one state (Michigan) but trails slightly in two others (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Securing victories in these three states could potentially clinch him the overall election.
It’s important to highlight that Biden's poor performance does not necessarily disadvantage Democrats in the Senate races in the same states. Democratic candidates hold the lead despite Republicans being the clear favourites to win the majority in this chamber.
