Transnistria separatists request Moscow's aid amid Moldova tensions

Deputies from the separatist region of Transnistria appealed on Wednesday to Russia to take steps to "defend" the area under what they describe as "increased pressure" from Moldova, reported by the Moldovan portal NewsMaker a few days ago.

Tensions in Moldova: will Putin begin to destabilize the country?

The American Institute for War Studies (ISW) believes several scenarios could unfold in connection with the appeal for help sent to Russia by Transnistria. The ISW views the most dangerous scenario as the Kremlin's possible decision to formally annex Transnistria to justify a long-term military intervention against Moldova.

The ISW suggests that Moscow might not take any immediate action in response to Wednesday's appeal, aiming to maintain the status quo between Tiraspol and Chișinău. The Kremlin could also increase diplomatic pressure on Moldova, which has lifted custom reliefs for Transnistria.

The German portal "Deutsche Welle" considers the issue of intensifying conflict in Moldova. It believes a full-scale war is unlikely for now since Russia does not share a border with Moldova. However, the situation remains unclear.

As "DW" assures, there are approximately 1,500-2,000 Russian soldiers stationed in Transnistria.

These are supplemented by Transnistrian troops. In total, these forces would likely have a significant advantage over the small and very poorly armed Moldovan army, which has only about 5,000 soldiers. Additionally, in the north of Transnistria, near the village of Cobasna, there is one of Europe's largest weapons depots, with over 20,000 tonnes of weapons and ammunition from the arsenal of the former Soviet Union, according to "Deutsche Welle."

The portal states that if Russia managed to enter the Odessa region, "it could be a prelude to an invasion of Moldova."

Moreover, from a political point of view, the Republic of Moldova is considered lost to Russia, much like Ukraine is. "DW" recalls that the European Union decided in December to start accession negotiations with Chișinău.

"The majority of the country's inhabitants are pro-European, many have Romanian citizenship, and thus EU passports; hundreds of thousands of Moldovans work in EU countries," it argues.

Destabilization

The service reports that Russia's refusal to relinquish its claims on Moldova and its readiness to attack under favorable conditions are demonstrated by Moscow's hybrid war with the country. Pro-Russian parties, funded in part by the fugitive to Israel pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor, lead fierce campaigns against President Maia Sandu and Prime Minister Dorin Recean's pro-Western government.

Furthermore, presidential elections and a referendum on joining the EU is slated to be held in Moldova this autumn.

"Before these elections, we are already observing attempts to destabilize the situation in our country," Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi told "DW".