The head of the Swedish navy, Rear Admiral Ewa Skoog Haslum, reported this week that Russian ships, transporting oil products despite sanctions, were equipped with masts and antennas prepared for intercepting communications.
Prof. Makowski, a leading expert in naval warfare theory, suggests that while the "shadow fleet"'s involvement in espionage activities, if any, is incidental, this does not negate the Russians conducting intelligence through maritime units. They could use research vessels, which, alongside studying the seas and oceans, also monitor activities within a given area.
"These ships can always serve dual purposes—proper research alongside reconnaissance. It’s difficult to distinguish the two. If a ship conducts water measurements within an exclusive economic zone, it's generally harmless. However, for developing tactics or employing units, such geophysical or meteorological data could be significant. The Russians definitely engage in intelligence activities through their ships," says Prof. Makowski.
What might the Russians be interested in Sweden for? - "Certainly, the northern part of Gotland captures the Russians' interest due to long-standing Swedish electronic intelligence equipment there. Furthermore, since Russia's aggression toward Ukraine, Sweden has been reinforcing its military presence on the island. The intelligence sections of the Baltic Fleet or the Western Military District would likely be keen on the innovations possessed by the Swedes," the expert pointed out.
What is the "shadow fleet"? The expert explains
Prof. Makowski clarifies that since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, global shipping related to the transport of crude oil and its derivatives has been split into three segments. The first encompasses ships engaged in legal activities, followed by the so-called "grey fleet," and finally, the "dark" or "black fleet."
The "grey" consists of shipowners and operators working on the edge of legality, frequently altering the flag and ownership of their vessels. The "black" operates below the threshold of legality, disregarding regulations concerning the technical state of ships or their insurance.
The "grey" and "dark" fleets together form what is referred to as the "shadow fleet," controlling about 20-25% of oil transport, with Russian companies behind it. The rest, 75-80%, is managed by the "shadow fleet." There has been a surge in the activities of the "shadow fleet" in recent years, fueled by Western sanctions against Russia and market instability.
"Greed is a powerful motivator, driving shipowners to profit from this situation," comments Prof. Makowski.
He adds that about 40% of the "grey fleet" comprises vessels around 20 years old, which should ideally no longer be used for transporting oil, as this marks the suitable age for a tanker to cease operations.
Does the "shadow fleet" pose an environmental threat?
Prof. Makowski expresses significant concern regarding the environmental impact of the rising "shadow fleet" maritime traffic.
"The threat to the environment is substantial, even massive, considering the quality of these ships, the crew's training, and insurance issues. The aftermath of a potential disaster would be long-lasting," he states.
What's the worst that could happen? A ship might run aground, shoal, or collide with another vessel, leading to an oil spill. So far, one such incident has been recorded without crude oil onboard.
"Major vessels can't enter the Baltic Sea due to draft limitations in the straits of the Great Belt and Sound—most winds in the Baltic blow from the northwest and west. A disaster in the area stretching from the Danish straits through Bornholm to Gotland could be tragic," he adds.
"With these wind directions and currents, a potential spill would severely impact our coasts. It would affect Poland, Lithuania, and possibly Latvia if it occurred on the northern route from Bornholm towards Gotland. A spill in the Gulf of Finland would be catastrophic given its scale," he further explains.
What about the "shadow fleet"? EU actions ineffective according to the expert
The expert points out the limitations of individual countries in controlling the "shadow fleet." He also deems the efforts of the European Union and the International Maritime Organization largely ineffective.
"We have certain tools derived from the International Law of the Sea and regulations on shipping Health and Safety, but these are not enforced. Discussing illegal or semi-legal oil transportation, I can say that 11% of the "grey fleet" sails under European flags," Prof. Makowski explains.
"On the list of oil reception points, we find countries like the Netherlands, Italy, Greece, or Belgium for the grey fleet. However, for the "black fleet," the Netherlands leads as a recipient country, followed by Bulgaria, Italy, Germany, or Belgium. We're caught between upholding values and pursuing business, with some countries unwilling to take risks," he concludes.
