Shoygu's future uncertain as Kremlin intrigue hints at defence shakeup

Sergey Shoygu may lose his position as the Minister of National Defence in the new administration, according to reports from the Russian "Forbes", citing a source from the Russian Ministry of Defence. This change could come with the official inauguration of Vladimir Putin for his fifth presidential term.

A service source mentioned that Shoygu's potential departure is linked to the arrest of his deputy, long-time collaborator, and friend Timur Ivanov, who faces corruption charges.

The source from Forbes suggested that Ivanov's arrest might lead to Shoygu being ousted from the Ministry of Defence and a "purge" of his allies within the department.

Political analyst Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin, told the Moscow Times that Shoygu's replacement seems imminent, as Ivanov's case signifies a decline in Shoygu's standing within the Kremlin.

"In any case, (the secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation and former head of the FSB, Nikolai) Patrushev concluded that it was feasible to target him," Gallyamov remarked. He noted that the circle of former KGB officers from the early days of Putin's reign, which includes Patrushev, has never been fond of Shoygu.

Firstly, the intelligence services are inherently distrustful of military officials, perpetually searching for plots among them, which fuels mutual aversion. However, there are also personal dynamics at play. Shoygu has always adopted an autonomous approach towards the FSB, seeing himself as part of Putin's inner circle, which naturally vexed the FSB, as pointed out by Gallyamov.

Timur Ivanov was arrested on April 23. By Wednesday, he was officially charged with corruption, facing a potential sentence ranging from eight to 15 years in prison.