Sharp rise in Russian wartime casualties among new recruits

The analysis is based on publicly available sources, such as funeral photos, information about the fallen published on local government websites, media reports, and posts from relatives, especially those with burial photos. The findings reveal a sharp increase in the number of casualties among Russians who signed a contract with the Ministry of Defence only after the invasion began.

Many of these newly mobilised soldiers die within two to four weeks of being sent to the front, some even after a few days. According to reports from BBC and Mediazona, the proportion of volunteers among the total confirmed Russian casualties has been steadily increasing. They comprise 22 percent of the total losses, compared to just 14 percent in November 2022.

At the same time, the percentage of prisoners who volunteered for the war in exchange for having the rest of their sentence pardoned has decreased—from 26 percent in November 2022 to the current 18 percent. The regions with the most confirmed casualties are now Bashkiria, Tatarstan, and the Sverdlovsk Oblast. The latter entered this list after the mobilisation and mass recruitment from prisons, due to numerous industrial plants and large penal colonies.

In terms of casualties per capita, Tuva, Buryatia, and Altai take the lead, while Moscow and St. Petersburg record the lowest rates. "Our calculations show that the probability of dying in the war for a resident of Tuva is nine times higher than for a resident of Moscow," the media report.

Additionally, at least 52 percent of all those killed on the front were people who were not associated with the Russian army at the beginning of the war. Journalists note that it has not been determined how 28 percent of the identified deceased ended up on the front.