Russia's surveillance setbacks: The fall of A‑50 Beriev aircraft and implications for Ukrainian F‑16s

Based on Ukrainian estimates, Russia has already lost two of these vital aircraft in 2024. The first was shot down on 14 January over the Sea of Azov. The incident was confirmed by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny. The second downing occurred on 23 February, with the upgraded A-50U model crashing in the Krasnodar Region.

These are not the only A-50s missing from the Russian register of operational aircraft. In February 2023, a flying radar was attacked by saboteurs at a military airbase in Machulishchy, Belarus, bringing the count of destroyed or damaged A-50 Beriev aircraft to three. According to Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Russia is left with six A-50 aircraft. In contrast, the Defense Romania service notes that only three seem to be modernized.

Budanov suggests that if Russia loses another A-50, 24/7 surveillance will no longer be feasible. Meanwhile, as Ukrainian military expert Pavlo Narozhny pointed out on Radio NV, Russian operations will be considerably more challenging as the radar range of the A-50 is 600 kilometers for airborne targets and 300 kilometers for land targets. This essentially implies that Russia will need to operate the A-50 from safer distances, reducing its effectiveness, especially in areas like Donbass or Kherson.

The Eurasian Times indicates that attacks on the S-400 Triumph air defense systems and the destruction of the Russian AWACS fleet precede the deployment of Western F-16 fighters to Ukraine. These two systems were previously considered the most significant threats. Therefore, the Ukrainians are likely preparing in all possible ways for the arrival of the F-16s and are aiming to provide the best possible conditions for their operation.

Despite a significantly superior military air force, the Russians have not been able to achieve air superiority over the Ukrainians. Fighters such as the Su-34 are forced to fly low over Ukraine. This strategy provides protection from enemy radars, but in turn, limits the reach of their sensors. As Łukasz Michalik, a journalist for WP Tech, explained, a low-flying Su-34 is somewhat 'blind' - reliant on AWACS in the form of a Beriev A-50 aircraft, monitoring the situation over Ukraine, flying dozens or even hundreds of kilometers away."

Similarly, the only Russian AWACS work with MiG-31 fighters. Therefore, their reduced numbers may have significant consequences, particularly since Russians do not possess as advanced satellite reconnaissance capabilities as Ukraine, which receives support in this regard from Western allies.