Russia's MiG‑31K return to Belarus: A new threat to Ukraine
After a year and a half of break, MiG-31K fighters have arrived in Belarus. These are among the most dangerous Russian aircraft, capable of carrying the hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles that threaten Ukraine's entire territory.
The information about the presence of MiG-31K in Belarus was first shared by Belarusian Hajun, an opposition project monitoring the military situation in the country. The Russians sent two of these fighters to their ally, landing at the Machulishchy airfield.
MiG-31K in Belarus
Ukrainian media and Western observers emphasise that MiG-31K fighters have returned to Belarus after a long break—they were last stationed there in April 2023. It is unclear what the Russians' objective is, but the greatest concern is the weaponry that can be carried by these machines—the hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles.
Threat to the entire territory of Ukraine
The MiG-31K is a fighter that measures about 22 metres in length and over 6 metres in width. It can reach speeds of up to approximately 3,000 km/h. It is equipped with a standard six-barrelled 23 mm automatic cannon, but it is also adapted to carry additional armaments.
From the Ukrainian perspective, the most significant threat is the hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles, which have a range of up to 2,000 km. The launch of such a missile by a MiG-31K pilot, for example from Belarusian airspace, means the entire Ukraine is within its range. The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles are also distinguished by their high flight speed. The Russians claim that it is up to 10 Mach (more likely about 8 Mach), which poses a challenge for air defence systems. In practice, American Patriot systems handle this Russian weapon best.
Ukrainian aviation expert Konstantin Kryvolap believes, however, that the MiG-31K fighters sent to Belarus will not be used to attack Ukraine. He thinks their arrival in Belarus is a "demonstrative show aimed at showing that such capabilities exist." In his view, the Russians will not risk losing these fighters. A more likely scenario is the launch of Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles from Russia, which could then fly through Belarusian territory and reach Ukraine. This would not be the first such situation, as a similar event was observed during the recent shelling of Lviv.
