Russian logistics collapse in Crimea: Supply routes targeted

The Ukrainians are gradually cutting off Crimea from supply deliveries by attacking key communication routes. This is a severe issue for the Russians, as they have limited options for resupply. The units fighting in Zaporizhzhia can be supplied only by ferries, through the Crimean Bridge crossing the Kerch Strait, and via the M14 highway along the shores of the Sea of Azov and an expanded railway line.

The first option is currently unavailable. On 30 May, the Ukrainians damaged the ferries "Avangard" and "ConroTrader" with ATACMS missiles. These vessels handled both vehicular and rail transport. Commander Dmytro Pleteńczuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Naval Forces, stated that the Russians would attempt to restore this connection, as ferries had become the primary logistical tool for supplying groups fighting in southern Ukraine through the peninsula.

The fastest, though not the safest, route to deliver supplies to the front could have been via the Crimean Bridge, built soon after the peninsula's annexation. The bridge has already been attacked twice by the Ukrainians. In the autumn of 2022, a truck filled with explosives detonated on it, damaging several spans. Another attack, this time using marine drones, which caused further damage, occurred in July last year.

At that time, the Russians significantly limited the use of the bridge for military transports, and later – at least until mid-May 2024 – practically ceased using it altogether. Analysis of satellite images indicated that during this period, only once – at the end of February – was the passage of a train with military tankers recorded.

During this period, the Russians tried to bolster the bridge's defences. It is protected by sunken ships and barges, with steel nets hung on buoys, theoretically intended to catch incoming unmanned boats. After the ferries were damaged, the Russians had to resume deliveries via the bridge. According to the Ukrainians, only a symbolic amount of supplies is delivered this way.

The spokesperson of the Ukrainian Naval Forces assessed that the Crimean Bridge is no longer significant from a military standpoint, so its destruction will not have the same impact as at the beginning of the war. He said there was no point in destroying the bridge to boost morale.

To ensure the supply chain, the railway line Yakymivka-Berdyansk-Mariupol-Rostov-on-Don will be crucial. This route will connect the occupied regions with Crimea and the mainland. The destruction of this new railway infrastructure would pose a serious problem for the Russian army.

Russian supply routes are under threat, but so are the ships. Over six months ago, the Russians began withdrawing them from ports in Crimea. They moved them to Novorossiysk, out of range of Ukrainian cruise missiles. Until recently, a large patrol ship and five large landing ships undergoing repairs due to damage were stationed in Sevastopol. Frigates, missile corvettes, and submarines – except for the wreck of the "Rostov-on-Don" – have vanished from Crimean ports.

The transport and landing ships were withdrawn in June, and the last combat ship, the patrol vessel "Ladny," left Sevastopol on 15 July. "Ladny" did not offer much combat value anyway. This outdated frigate, launched in 1980, can, at most, serve as an anti-aircraft ship.

Ships relocated from Crimea were initially tried to be deployed in other Black Sea ports. However, it turned out that they were either too far from the theatre of war or lacked adequate facilities. Hence, the choice of Novorossiysk has a significant drawback – it is not designed to accommodate such a number of ships. However, the Russians have little choice in the Black and Azov Sea regions. Small units operate only on the latter. Torpedo boats and patrol vessels are focused on operations in the area of the Crimean Bridge.

The Ukrainians are well aware of the location of Russian units in Crimea. Partisan units and regular Special Forces operate on the peninsula, conducting sabotage operations and marking targets for rocket artillery and aviation.

"Atesh," a Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar partisan movement, reported that the Russians are moving their aircraft to inactive airfields. The partisans reported repair works at the Zavodskoje airfield in Simferopol. Fighters and bombers used to attack Ukraine may be relocated there.

This is valuable information as the Ukrainians have been equipped with long-range ATACMS missiles since April. These can destroy targets up to 300 kilometres away, including those in occupied Crimea.

The Ukrainian military can also rely on civilian support. The Centre for National Resistance (a website of Ukraine's Armed Forces aimed at supporting civilian resistance) has compiled a list of Russian equipment along with photos and silhouettes, enabling civilians to identify and mark the locations of Russian systems.

Residents of occupied territories can use an app to mark relevant vehicles and their locations or a chatbot to send photos along with the positions of vehicles. These targets have frequently been destroyed by Ukrainian rockets.

Crimea has thus slowly become a trap for the Russians, which spells serious problems for the Southern Military Group.