Russian air force faces critical losses in the Ukraine conflict

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been ongoing for over two years. During this time, the defending army has repeatedly destroyed more Russian machines. But how many aircraft do the Russians have left to strike toward Ukraine? Military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko has calculated precisely how many Su-34 bombers were destroyed during the war and how many machines might be left for the military. His estimates align with recent reports from the United States about rebuilding the Russian army.

The Ukrainian sky is becoming increasingly dangerous for Russian aircraft – this is the conclusion drawn by the Ukrainian agency Unian, citing the calculations of a military expert, and is also evident based on numerous recent reports from the front. And these are relentless – let us recall that only recently, the Ukrainians shot down at least four Su-25 attack aircraft within two weeks.

Even before Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, the Russian Federation's arsenal contained 110 Su-34 aircraft, of which less than 100 were operational. The Russian air force has lost 25 Su-34 bombers throughout the full-scale war, explains Kovalenko. However, these figures date back to December 22, 2023. According to unofficial data, the Russian forces have lost over 50 Su-34s in two years, adds the analyst.

Therefore, theoretically, in the worst-case scenario for the Ukrainians, the Russian Federation's army currently has an arsenal of 85 Su-34 aircraft. In the best case, according to Kovalenko, based on unofficial findings, this is a maximum of 60 machines. However, it should be emphasized that these numbers do not account for current production. Kovalenko counts destroyed machines, whereas the Russians continuously produce new Su-34s.

The analyst explains that if Russia continues to lose 2-3 Su-34s per month, it will not be possible to compensate for these losses with production, and the total number will go negative. The Russian Federation reportedly produces 10-12 Su-34s annually (about one aircraft per month).

Assuming that Russia has produced a maximum of 12 Su-34s annually since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the Russian Federation's army may still have about 100 Su-34 aircraft. This means—and as confirmed by the recent statements from U.S. authorities commenting on rebuilding the Russian military—that the Russian Federation is managing to maintain a steady supply of valuable equipment.

The Su-34 aircraft mentioned are among the key targets for Ukrainians. This is because the Su-34 was created as a multi-role tactical bomber with the characteristics of a fighter jet. It can carry nuclear weapons and conduct direct engagements on the front line. Its performance, particularly its ability to reach supersonic speeds, cannot be overlooked.

The Su-34 is powered by two AL-31F M1 turbojet engines, which propel the craft to a maximum speed of 1,900 km/h. Simultaneously, the aircraft can operate at an altitude of 17,000 meters, while its range on a full fuel tank is approximately 4,000 kilometres. The Russian design's defensive capabilities are provided by a standard 30 mm GSh-30-1 aircraft cannon, and it can carry additional weapons weighing nearly 8,000 kilograms on 12 hardpoints.