Russia intensifies its military strategy targeting Ukrainian hydroelectric facilities

The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russia has targeted a new category of objectives in Ukraine. In their military operations, they are now focusing on hydroelectric power stations and dams, raising concerns of a potential ecological disaster.

In recent days, Russian and Ukrainian forces have both targeted each other's energy infrastructure. Ukraine has launched attacks on several Russian refineries, prompting Russian forces to deploy anti-aircraft defenses. This was followed by the most extensive attack on Ukraine's energy sector in history, causing widespread power outages and water supply disruptions.

Ukraine is believed to have retaliated with a drone strike on the thermal power plant in Novocherkassk in the Rostov region. In response, Russia launched drone attacks using Shahed 131/136 drones. The Institute for the Study of War, as mentioned in a report by the Polish Press Agency, indicates that Russia will now shift its focus to hydroelectric stations and dams.

An American think-tank has shed light on the operations conducted by Russia overnight from the 28th to the 29th of March 2024. Volodymyr Zelensky has reported that the newly targeted facilities were hydroelectric power stations in the regions of Cherkasy and Chernivtsi. While pro-Kremlin commentators argue that both a thermal power plant and hydroelectric stations were bombed, Ukrenerho – a Ukrainian energy conglomerate, confirmed damages to both types of plants in the central and western parts of Ukraine.

The ISW suggests that these attacks on Ukrainian hydroelectric power stations and dams may represent a "new pattern", indicating a "significant escalation" compared to previous operations. Before this, Russian forces had not systematically targeted hydroelectric plants and dams.

This strategy by Russia aims to undermine the Ukrainian defense industry, which will struggle to function effectively with the energy sector compromised. Russia also seeks to exploit the shortage of missiles in Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses.

"The reluctance of the United States and European countries to supply Ukraine with potentially significant operational or strategic equipment, due to concerns about provoking escalation or retaliation from Russia, is noted by ISW.

"Russia's readiness to escalate its unprovoked aggression demonstrates that concerns over Russian escalation or retaliation in response to further arms supplies to Ukraine should not influence such decisions – either in the USA or other Western countries," conclude the ISW experts, as quoted by PAP.

It is important to remember that in June 2023, Russians destroyed a dam in the Kakhovka Reservoir on the Dnieper, alongside the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Station. The resulting explosion at the dam in Nova Kakhovka unleashed a massive flood, with waves reported to reach nearly 3 meters high. There were immediate warnings of an ecological disaster as numerous pollutants, including animal carcasses, were washed into the Black Sea. Reports in August 2023 claimed that around 900 dolphins died in the Black Sea, part of the reason being the pollution from the Nova Kakhovka dam explosion.

The website ukrainer.net reports a sudden drop in the salinity levels of the water in the Odessa Gulf, along with areas of high nitrogen concentration, indicating sewage pollution of the Black Sea. This significant change in salinity has led to the demise of various marine lifeforms, such as mussel colonies, fry, and fish eggs, potentially impacting the Black Sea's coastal ecosystem over the long term.