Russia eyes Libyan foothold after Assad regime's collapse
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime may quicken Russian plans to establish military bases in Africa, particularly in eastern Libya, as noted by the ISW report.
12 December 2024 16:36
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria could have extensive implications for geopolitics in the region. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report, Russia might swiftly move to establish new military bases on the African continent, concentrating primarily on eastern Libya.
Russian plans in Libya
Following the loss of Syria, Russia may concentrate on Libya as a new site for its military bases. Moscow is already enlarging its military facilities and constructing weapons storage at the Birak and Al-Jufra air bases. In Al-Jufra, Russian mercenaries from the former Wagner Group are training forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar, who controls the eastern portion of Libya.
General Haftar, supported by Russia, is fighting against the western part of Libya, recognised by the UN, with its capital in Tripoli. Haftar and Assad were close allies, and their regimes were accused of collaborating in drug smuggling. In 2020, Egyptian customs detained a ship carrying four tonnes of hashish travelling from Syria to Benghazi, which served as evidence of this cooperation.
In exchange for weapons and training, Russia gains access to the port of Tobruk from Haftar. Consequently, eastern Libya has become a strategic point for Russia on its path to other African countries, where the Kremlin is pushing Western influence aside.
Russia's presence on the northern shore of Africa could threaten the European Union's energy policy. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU diversified its energy supply, importing gas from Egypt and Algeria. A greater Russian presence in Libya could disrupt this system of dependencies and undermine the peace agreement between the two parts of Libya.
The ISW report suggests that Russia may utilise the situation in Libya to further reinforce its position in the region, which could have serious repercussions for political and energy stability in North Africa.