Russia escalates Kursk conflict with heavy artillery buildup
In the Kursk region, the Russians have brought in "nuclear" artillery, tanks, and armoured personnel carriers from the Donbas. This may indicate that Russian towns and villages will experience the same devastation as areas in Ukraine. The cost seems irrelevant; the focus is only on displacing Ukrainians.
The Kursk Military Group is failing to meet Vladimir Putin's deadlines to reclaim the territory lost in August following the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Initially, they were meant to achieve this by the end of September, then by mid-November. Now Putin has imposed an "ultimate" deadline: the inauguration of Donald Trump, which is by 20th January.
Meanwhile, the Russians have about 700 square kilometres left to recapture out of almost 1,300 square kilometres. Even if the troops, led directly by Deputy Defence Minister General Yunus-bek Yevkurov, set new records in their advance, they won't achieve the target by the specified date.
Since occupying parts of the Kursk region, Ukrainians have constructed field fortifications at several sites, against which Russian attacks are faltering. Moreover, they are conducting further counterattacks, locally pushing Russians back from captured regions. This week, the main story in the Russian media was about capturing the ruins of Kurakhove, successful battles in Toretsk, and stopping another Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region.
"At about 9:00 am Moscow time, in order to halt the advance of Russian troops in the Kursk direction, the enemy launched a counterattack," reported the Russian Ministry of Defence.
In response, the artillery and aviation of the Russian Armed Forces conducted an attack, destroying two tanks, one armoured vehicle, and seven infantry fighting vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they added.
Kremlin propaganda constantly asserts that Ukrainians are suffering heavy losses and that the "invincible army" is pushing them across the border. This is a partial truth, as the situation for the Russians is complex, and news of recapturing villages remains scarce.
Russians have problems
Although the Russians regained about 40% of the lost territory by the end of the year, by January 2025, they are encountering difficulties advancing further. Furthermore, following further counteroffensives, Ukrainian units moved south from the village of Bierdin to the centre of the Ruskie Porechne settlement and the centre of Novosotnitsky, extending the controlled wedge northeast of Sudzha by 5 to 6 kilometres.
Fierce battles are ongoing over both locations, but the Russians take one step forward only to retreat two steps the following day. Additionally, the intense fighting has resulted in significant losses, forcing the withdrawal of the longest-committed brigades. For instance, in mid-August, the 155th and 810th Independent Guards Naval Infantry Brigades were deployed to the Kursk region. After intense fighting in November and December, both lost more than half of their personnel and equipment.
To exacerbate matters, on 25th December and 7th January, Ukrainian rocket artillery executed precise attacks on the command post of the 810th brigade. The losses for the Russians remain unknown, but it was after the second of these attacks that the withdrawal of brigades from the front commenced.
It remains uncertain which units will replace them. However, it is certain that a larger-scale operation will commence only after their arrival.
For now, the Russians are deploying more heavy artillery to the Kursk region to demolish Ukrainian fortifications. This marks a tactical shift observed in the latter half of last year. During this period, the Russians ceased shelling broad front segments with artillery barrages and began focusing attacks on narrow lines. After this scorched-earth approach, small groups of soldiers were sent in to eliminate any remaining defenders.
This large-scale tactic was used by the Russians during World War II, around 80 years ago, and was employed by the Russian Federation in their Grozny offensive, 30 years ago.
Recent glaring examples include Mariupol, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. The cities were over 90% destroyed. The Russians were unperturbed by the fact that, according to them, these were Russian cities. Is it likely they'll be concerned about Sudzha? That seems doubtful.
City destroyers
Ukrainians around Sudzha have built field fortifications. Similar challenges faced the Russians in Bakhmut and Vuhledar, where they couldn't capture the cities for an extended period, opting instead to destroy infrastructure and communication routes, sending infantry into the ruins. At that time, they utilised rocket artillery and the heaviest tube artillery. The 2S7 Pion "nuclear guns", with a 203 mm calibre, played a key role.
Today, no one expects the 2S7 Pion to create "nuclear" corridors. They are currently used to destroy fortification lines and dismantle cities. A 110-kilogram explosive shell can create a crater nearly 5 metres deep or demolish a small detached house. Recently, North Korean M-1989 Koksan guns have bolstered Russian artillery. Photos of the first units in combat positions surfaced in early January.
Given the Russians' prior use of artillery, one can anticipate Sudzha facing a similar fate as Bakhmut or Vuhledar, especially since it is a small town of around 5,000 inhabitants. The Russians have repeatedly shown they are unconcerned about the costs incurred while achieving their objectives.
