Release of F‑16 jet location: Strategic move or risky exposure?

The Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Mykola Oleschuk, posted photos and a recording on social media showing an F-16 fighter jet in Ukrainian colours. The published materials allowed analysts to determine that the aircraft was stationed at Kolomyia airport. The disclosure of this information has raised numerous questions about whether the Ukrainians intentionally shared it. Lukasz Pacholski, an expert from "Aviation International" magazine, said such an action might be "a trap for the Russians".

The Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force published materials depicting the F-16 fighter jet and the mother of the fallen pilot Andriy Pilschykov, known by the pseudonym "Juice", in its cockpit. Pilschykov contributed to building the legend of the "Ghost of Kyiv," a pilot credited with downing dozens of enemy fighter jets. "Juice" died on 25 August 2023, along with two other pilots, Vyacheslav Minka and Serhiy Prokazin, during a training flight. Two L-39M1 aircraft collided in mid-air while the pilots practised air combat manoeuvres.

Defence Blog recalls that during Andriy Pilschykov's funeral, a promise related to F-16 fighter jets, which were not yet in Ukraine at the time, was made. The promise was fulfilled when "Juice's" mother, Lilia Oleksandrovna, sat in the cockpit of the machine her son dreamed of flying. Photos showing the woman on board the F-16 in Ukrainian colours quickly allowed analysts to determine its location. According to experts, the aircraft was at Kolomyia airport, a city in western Ukraine near the Romanian border.

The decision to publish materials that allow the location of Ukrainian F-16s to be pinpointed has sparked much emotion. However, experts believe this action was not accidental. One motive might have been to show that the fighters are indeed based on Ukrainian territory, not on allied territory, as noted by the Altair aviation agency. "F-16 aircraft are not allowed to take off from Poland or Romania. These jets, which have indeed been delivered to Ukraine, must be stationed on its territory," said Lukasz Pacholski.

"Why was such a photo made public? Probably to mislead the enemy, distribute decoy targets that will cause the Russians to use valuable weapons, such as cruise missiles or ballistic missiles, to eliminate these decoys rather than real bases and aircraft," the expert emphasises. He also notes that F-16 fighters can operate from various locations throughout Ukraine, including civilian airports and highways.

"We can clearly see that the Russians have not managed to destroy the Ukrainian air force on the ground over these two and a half years of war, and now I also feel that the publication of photos allowing the identification of F-16 locations is a trap for the Russians," Lukasz Pacholski concludes.

The first F-16 fighter jets appeared in Ukraine at the end of July and the beginning of August. They were most likely 10 aircraft delivered by the Netherlands and Denmark. Ukraine is to receive a total of about 80 of these jets. Such a number of fighter jets will allow the creation of several squadrons that will primarily defend the skies against Russian air raids. The aircraft will also enable air-to-air and air-to-ground attacks and jam the electronic signals of Russian radars located in Ukraine and along its borders.