Putin's Ukrainian gamble: Assad's fall sidelines Russian focus
The regime of Bashar al-Assad has fallen in Syria. While the opposition celebrates their victory, Assad and his family have been granted asylum in Russia, and according to the Russian news agency TASS, they have already flown to Moscow. Alexander Baunov, a political scientist and senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, explains why Putin is so focused on Ukraine that the loss of Syria seems inconsequential to him.
On Sunday, 8th December, Syrian rebels announced the capture of Damascus, ending Assad's 24-year rule. This event marks another stage in the ongoing civil war that began in 2011, during which Assad was supported by Russia, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah.
The fall of Assad's regime has opened a new phase in the struggle for influence in the region. War-torn Syria has become a battleground for global powers and local factions. Following Assad's overthrow, Russia and Iran have lost their influence, setting off a new fight for resources and geopolitical power.
The rapid fall of the regime in Syria illustrates Vladimir Putin's extreme, or rather defensive, focus on Ukraine, which goes beyond rational political norms. For this, he is ready to sacrifice nearly everything, including his own past successes. While the leaders of the Russian regime constantly strive to portray themselves as cold-blooded realists, realistic politics at the Kremlin gave way to geopolitics long ago, which in turn was overshadowed by politics in Ukraine," says Alexander Baunov, as quoted by Meduza.
Putin's indifference to losing his sole military-political success far from Russia's borders seems apparent. The Ukrainian conflict, local in its origins, has displaced all other concerns and expanded to global proportions," explains Alexander Baunov.
Putin's associates remain silent, acknowledging that all of this lies within their leader's purview. As a result, the most significant global event in which Russia has been deeply involved for a long time remains uncommented. While Iran has provided its interpretation of the events, Russia's silence creates an impression of unpreparedness and uncertainty, reminiscent of the day of the Prigozhin revolt," adds Baunov (Meduza service).
"The stakes in the Ukrainian war are so high that it appears as either a historic victory or defeat for Russia. A potential victory in the Ukrainian conflict is presented as a triumph in the global struggle of the world's majority against the elite of the old world: after Ukraine, they say, will come Syria, Georgia. Now, with Syria's fall, there is nothing left but to succeed. Thus, the retreat from Syria is unlikely to offer any direct relief for Ukraine," argues the political scientist and senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.